Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Deportes Tolima to win @ 4.35 – our chance 28% vs 23% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDeportivo Pasto to win ✓45% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.54
Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Deportivo Pasto welcome Deportes Tolima to Estadio Departamental Libertad for a Primera A fixture on Saturday 11 April (02:05 WAT). In the table, Deportivo Pasto are 18th, in the drop zone, on 15 points after 18 matches; Deportes Tolima are 9th (upper half) with 26.
Current form
Deportivo Pasto, last 5: DLWWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Alianza Valledupar, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Deportes Tolima, last 5: DDWWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Universitario, at home. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Pasto 1.2 xG, Deportes Tolima 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Pasto 45%, draw 27%, Deportes Tolima 28%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Deportes Tolima to win @4.35 – the bookmaker implies 23%, our ratings say 28%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Deportes Tolima. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportivo Pasto45%fair 2.21 · @1.90
Draw27%fair 3.75 · @3.20
Deportes Tolima28%fair 3.56 · @4.35
2.34Expected goals
1.21Deportivo Pasto xG
1.13Deportes Tolima xG
53%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Deportivo Pasto 1.2 – 1.1 Deportes Tolima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Deportivo Pasto
Deportes Tolima
Attack vs Primera A average
-29%
+1%
Goals conceded vs average
+22%
-7%
Our expected goals here
0.98
1.30
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Pasto to win✓
45%
2.21
1.90
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.36
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Deportivo Pasto (draw no bet)✓
62%
1.62
–
Asian handicap
Deportes Tolima +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.50
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.05
First team to score
Deportivo Pasto to score first✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Pasto / FT Deportivo Pasto✓
22%
4.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.54
–
Recent results
Deportivo Pasto – last 6
DLWWLW
1 Apr
@ Alianza Valledupar
0–0
D
30 Mar
vs Atletico Nacional
1–2
L
25 Mar
@ Fortaleza FC
2–1
W
18 Mar
vs Chico
2–0
W
14 Mar
@ Once Caldas
2–4
L
10 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Deportes Tolima – last 6
DDWWDW
8 Apr
vs Universitario
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Santa Fe
2–2
D
1 Apr
vs Águilas Doradas
4–1
W
29 Mar
vs Jaguares
3–1
W
23 Mar
@ Chico
1–1
D
20 Mar
vs Fortaleza FC
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Pasto and Deportes Tolima.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
On our numbers Deportivo Pasto have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Deportes Tolima 28%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Deportes Tolima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima (Primera A) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 02:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Departamental Libertad.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
