Double chanceIndependiente Medellin or draw ✓83% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.11
Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:30 WAT, Sunday 26 April: Independiente Medellin v Fortaleza FC in the Primera A, played at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagüí. In the table, Independiente Medellin are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 18 matches; Fortaleza FC are 20th (in the drop zone) with 12. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Independiente Medellin, last 5: WLLDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Chico, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Fortaleza FC, last 5: LWDDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to America de Cali, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente Medellin 2.0 xG, Fortaleza FC 0.9 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente Medellin 62%, draw 21%, Fortaleza FC 17%.
Lower-risk option: Independiente Medellin or draw (83%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.77.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente Medellin 2–0 Fortaleza FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente Medellin62%fair 1.61 · @1.56
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @4.10
Fortaleza FC17%fair 6.04 · @5.40
2.87Expected goals
1.98Independiente Medellin xG
0.89Fortaleza FC xG
58%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 2.0 – 0.9 Fortaleza FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Independiente Medellin
Fortaleza FC
Attack vs Primera A average
+16%
-19%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
+21%
Our expected goals here
2.08
0.91
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✓
62%
1.61
1.56
Double chance
Independiente Medellin or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.77
Draw no bet
Independiente Medellin (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.27
–
Asian handicap
Independiente Medellin -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.15
First team to score
Independiente Medellin to score first✓
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Independiente Medellin ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✗
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.11
–
Recent results
Independiente Medellin – last 6
WLLDDW
23 Apr
vs Chico
2–0
W
17 Apr
@ Flamengo
1–4
L
12 Apr
vs Atletico Nacional
2–3
L
9 Apr
vs Estudiantes L.P.
1–1
D
3 Apr
@ Once Caldas
1–1
D
31 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Fortaleza FC – last 6
LWDDLL
23 Apr
vs America de Cali
1–2
L
19 Apr
vs Águilas Doradas
2–0
W
4 Apr
vs Internacional de Bogota
1–1
D
31 Mar
@ Millonarios
2–2
D
25 Mar
vs Deportivo Pasto
1–2
L
20 Mar
@ Deportes Tolima
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente Medellin and Fortaleza FC.
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza FC?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza FC?
On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Fortaleza FC 17%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza FC?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza FC?
Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 2–0 Fortaleza FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza FC?
Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza FC (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagüí.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
