Pohang Steelers 55%Draw 25%Gwangju FC 19%Expected goals 1.50 – 0.90
78%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPohang Steelers to win ✓55% · @1.64
Double chancePohang Steelers or draw ✓81% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.89
Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 22 April the K League 1 brings Pohang Steelers against Gwangju FC at Pohang Steel Yard. Kick-off: 11:30 WAT. In the table, Pohang Steelers are 9th on 44 points after 35 matches; Gwangju FC are 12th with 23. There are 21 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Pohang Steelers, last 5: LLWWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to FC Anyang, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 3 lost from 6. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Gwangju FC, last 5: LLLLD Their latest outing: 1–5 defeat to Ulsan Hyundai FC, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Momentum favours Pohang Steelers, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.3 for Gwangju FC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pohang Steelers 1.5 xG, Gwangju FC 0.9 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pohang Steelers 55%, draw 25%, Gwangju FC 19%.
Lower-risk option: Pohang Steelers or draw (81%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pohang Steelers 1–0 Gwangju FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pohang Steelers55%fair 1.81 · @1.64
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.50
Gwangju FC19%fair 5.15 · @5.75
2.40Expected goals
1.50Pohang Steelers xG
0.90Gwangju FC xG
51%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–09%
0–18%
From our goals model: Pohang Steelers 1.5 – 0.9 Gwangju FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pohang Steelers to win✓
55%
1.81
1.64
Double chance
Pohang Steelers or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Pohang Steelers (draw no bet)✓
74%
1.35
–
Asian handicap
Gwangju FC +1 (Asian handicap)
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.12
1.06
First team to score
Pohang Steelers to score first✓
57%
1.76
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pohang Steelers / FT Pohang Steelers✓
31%
3.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.89
–
Recent results
Pohang Steelers – last 6
LLWWDL
19 Apr
vs FC Anyang
0–1
L
11 Apr
vs Jeju United FC
0–2
L
4 Apr
vs Daejeon Citizen
1–0
W
28 Mar
vs Gangwon FC
1–0
W
22 Mar
vs Bucheon FC 1995
0–0
D
18 Mar
vs FC Seoul
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Gwangju FC – last 6
LLLLDD
19 Apr
@ Ulsan Hyundai FC
1–5
L
11 Apr
vs Bucheon FC 1995
0–1
L
4 Apr
@ Gangwon FC
0–3
L
22 Mar
@ FC Seoul
0–5
L
17 Mar
@ Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1–1
D
14 Mar
vs Jeonbuk Motors
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pohang Steelers and Gwangju FC.
What is the prediction for Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC?
On our numbers Pohang Steelers have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Gwangju FC 19%.
How many goals will there be in Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC?
Our predicted score is Pohang Steelers 1–0 Gwangju FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC?
Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC (K League 1) kicks off on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time) at Pohang Steel Yard.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
