Incheon United 61%Draw 23%Gwangju FC 16%Expected goals 1.72 – 0.82
75%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.25
8/10Rating
1.25Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultIncheon United to win61% · @1.50
Double chanceIncheon United or draw84% · @1.09
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.45
Incheon United vs Gwangju FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
11:00 WAT, Saturday 16 May: Incheon United v Gwangju FC in the K League 1, played at Sungui Arena Park. In the table, Incheon United are 6th on 49 points after 35 matches; Gwangju FC are 12th with 23. There are 26 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Incheon United, last 5: LWDLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Pohang Steelers, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Gwangju FC, last 5: LDLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to FC Seoul, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Incheon United, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.2 for Gwangju FC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Incheon United 1.7 xG, Gwangju FC 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Incheon United 61%, draw 23%, Gwangju FC 16%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Incheon United 1–0 Gwangju FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Incheon United61%fair 1.65 · @1.50
Draw23%fair 4.26 · @3.85
Gwangju FC16%fair 6.25 · @7.00
2.54Expected goals
1.72Incheon United xG
0.82Gwangju FC xG
53%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Incheon United 1.7 – 0.8 Gwangju FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Incheon United to win
61%
1.65
1.50
Double chance
Incheon United or draw
84%
1.19
1.09
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.87
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Incheon United (draw no bet)
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Gwangju FC +1.5 (Asian handicap)
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
71%
1.41
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
88%
1.14
1.08
First team to score
Incheon United to score first
62%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Incheon United / FT Incheon United
36%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.45
–
Recent results
Incheon United – last 6
LWDLWW
12 May
vs Pohang Steelers
0–1
L
9 May
@ Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3–0
W
5 May
@ Daejeon Citizen
0–0
D
2 May
vs Gangwon FC
0–1
L
25 Apr
vs Jeju United FC
1–0
W
21 Apr
@ Jeonbuk Motors
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Gwangju FC – last 6
LDLLLL
12 May
vs FC Seoul
0–1
L
9 May
vs Gangwon FC
0–0
D
2 May
vs Daejeon Citizen
0–5
L
26 Apr
vs FC Anyang
2–5
L
22 Apr
@ Pohang Steelers
0–1
L
19 Apr
@ Ulsan Hyundai FC
1–5
L
0.5Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Incheon United and Gwangju FC.
What is the prediction for Incheon United vs Gwangju FC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Incheon United vs Gwangju FC?
On our numbers Incheon United have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Gwangju FC 16%.
How many goals will there be in Incheon United vs Gwangju FC?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Incheon United vs Gwangju FC?
Our predicted score is Incheon United 1–0 Gwangju FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Incheon United vs Gwangju FC?
Incheon United vs Gwangju FC (K League 1) kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Sungui Arena Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
