Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 57% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultHamrun Spartans to win ✓54% · @1.57
Double chanceHamrun Spartans or draw ✓77% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.70
Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Monday 23 February: Hamrun Spartans v Marsaxlokk in the Premier League, played at Victor Tedesco Stadium. In the table, Hamrun Spartans are 5th on 18 points after 12 matches; Marsaxlokk are 2nd with 21. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Hamrun Spartans 1.5 xG, Marsaxlokk 1.0 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Hamrun Spartans 54%, draw 24%, Marsaxlokk 23%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Hamrun Spartans 1–1 Marsaxlokk. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Hamrun Spartans54%fair 1.87 · @1.57
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.50
Marsaxlokk23%fair 4.43 · @5.50
2.58Expected goals
1.54Hamrun Spartans xG
1.04Marsaxlokk xG
57%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–012%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Hamrun Spartans 1.5 – 1.0 Marsaxlokk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hamrun Spartans to win✓
54%
1.87
1.57
Double chance
Hamrun Spartans or draw✓
77%
1.29
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Hamrun Spartans (draw no bet)✓
70%
1.42
–
Asian handicap
Marsaxlokk +1 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.87
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
Hamrun Spartans to score first✓
55%
1.81
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hamrun Spartans / FT Hamrun Spartans✗
29%
3.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.70
–
Recent results
Hamrun Spartans – last 2
WD
18 Feb
@ Hibernians
1–0
W
13 Feb
vs Zabbar St. Patrick
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Marsaxlokk – last 2
DW
18 Feb
@ Floriana
0–0
D
15 Feb
vs Hibernians
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hamrun Spartans and Marsaxlokk.
What is the prediction for Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk?
On our numbers Hamrun Spartans have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Marsaxlokk 23%.
How many goals will there be in Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk?
Our predicted score is Hamrun Spartans 1–1 Marsaxlokk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk?
Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk (Premier League) kicks off on Monday 23 February 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Victor Tedesco Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
