Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 53% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultHamrun Spartans to win ✓57% · @1.44
Double chanceHamrun Spartans or draw ✓81% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.17
Hamrun Spartans vs Birkirkara: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Sunday 8 March: Hamrun Spartans v Birkirkara in the Premier League, played at Tony Bezzina Stadium. In the table, Hamrun Spartans are 5th on 18 points after 12 matches; Birkirkara are 7th with 16. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Hamrun Spartans, last 5: DDWWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Valletta FC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.4 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Birkirkara, last 5: WDWLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Zabbar St. Patrick, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Hamrun Spartans 1.5 xG, Birkirkara 0.8 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Hamrun Spartans 57%, draw 25%, Birkirkara 19%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.20.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Hamrun Spartans 1–0 Birkirkara. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Hamrun Spartans57%fair 1.76 · @1.44
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @3.95
Birkirkara19%fair 5.39 · @6.50
2.29Expected goals
1.46Hamrun Spartans xG
0.83Birkirkara xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–112%
2–011%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Hamrun Spartans 1.5 – 0.8 Birkirkara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hamrun Spartans to win✓
57%
1.76
1.44
Double chance
Hamrun Spartans or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
2.20 ▲
Draw no bet
Hamrun Spartans (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
Birkirkara +1 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Hamrun Spartans to score first✓
57%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hamrun Spartans / FT Hamrun Spartans✓
31%
3.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.17
–
Recent results
Hamrun Spartans – last 5
DDWWD
4 Mar
@ Valletta FC
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Floriana
1–1
D
23 Feb
vs Marsaxlokk
2–0
W
18 Feb
@ Hibernians
1–0
W
13 Feb
vs Zabbar St. Patrick
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Birkirkara – last 5
WDWLD
4 Mar
vs Zabbar St. Patrick
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ Naxxar Lions
0–0
D
25 Feb
vs Pietà Hotspurs
2–0
W
21 Feb
vs Zabbar St. Patrick
0–3
L
17 Feb
vs Sliema Wanderers
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hamrun Spartans and Birkirkara.
What is the prediction for Hamrun Spartans vs Birkirkara?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Hamrun Spartans vs Birkirkara?
On our numbers Hamrun Spartans have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Birkirkara 19%.
How many goals will there be in Hamrun Spartans vs Birkirkara?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hamrun Spartans vs Birkirkara?
Our predicted score is Hamrun Spartans 1–0 Birkirkara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Hamrun Spartans vs Birkirkara?
Hamrun Spartans vs Birkirkara (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Tony Bezzina Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tarxien Rainbows1
Naxxar Lions1