Value bet: Safa to win @ 3.25 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSafa to win ✗37% · @3.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.89
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.78
Al Ahed vs Safa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Al Ahed welcome Safa to Beirut Municipal Stadium for a Premier League fixture on Wednesday 24 June (14:00 WAT). In the table, Al Ahed are 4th, among the top four, on 9 points after 6 matches; Safa are 1st (leading the league) with 15.
Current form
Al Ahed, last 5: LWLWD Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Al Ansar, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Safa, last 4: WWWL Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Reyady Abaseya, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Safa, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.2 for Al Ahed.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Al Ahed 1.1 xG, Safa 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 47%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Al Ahed 37%, draw 25%, Safa 37%.
Price worth noting: Safa to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (57%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Al Ahed 1–1 Safa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Al Ahed37%fair 2.68 · @2.00
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.25
Safa37%fair 2.68 · @3.25
2.43Expected goals
1.14Al Ahed xG
1.29Safa xG
47%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Al Ahed 1.1 – 1.3 Safa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Safa to win✗
37%
2.68
3.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
–
Draw no bet
Safa (draw no bet)✗
50%
2.00
–
Asian handicap
Al Ahed +1 (Asian handicap)✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Safa to score first
49%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Safa / FT Safa✗
23%
4.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.78
–
Recent results
Al Ahed – last 6
LWLWDL
20 Jun
@ Al Ansar
1–3
L
16 Jun
vs Al Hikma
1–0
W
12 Jun
@ Al Nejmeh
0–1
L
12 May
@ Al Ansar
2–1
W
21 Feb
vs Tadamon Sour
0–0
D
15 Feb
@ Al Mabarrah
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Safa – last 4
WWWL
20 Jun
@ Reyady Abaseya
4–2
W
12 Jun
@ Shabab Al Sahel
1–0
W
20 Feb
vs Racing
2–0
W
13 Feb
vs Al Ansar
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al Ahed and Safa.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Al Ahed vs Safa?
On our numbers Al Ahed have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Safa 37%.
How many goals will there be in Al Ahed vs Safa?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al Ahed vs Safa?
Our predicted score is Al Ahed 1–1 Safa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Al Ahed vs Safa?
Al Ahed vs Safa (Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 24 June 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Beirut Municipal Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
