Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.30Odds
1
Value bet: Samgurali to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSamgurali to win ✓60% · @1.95
Double chanceSamgurali or draw ✓83% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.11
Samgurali vs Gagra: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
12:30 WAT, Sunday 11 October: Samgurali v Gagra in the Erovnuli Liga, played at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava. In the table, Samgurali are 7th, lower half, on 39 points after 32 matches; Gagra are 9th (in the drop zone) with 31.
Current form
Samgurali, last 5: LLLLD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Dinamo Tbilisi, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Gagra, last 5: DLDLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Meshakhte, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Gagra, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.3 for Samgurali.
Head to head
When they last met (24 Jun 2026) it ended Gagra 0–0 Samgurali. The last 2 head-to-heads: Samgurali 1 win, Gagra 0, draws 1. Those games averaged 0.5 goals.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Samgurali 1.9 xG, Gagra 0.9 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Samgurali 60%, draw 23%, Gagra 17%.
Lower-risk option: Samgurali or draw (83%) at 1.30.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Samgurali to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Samgurali or draw (83%, odds 1.30 – longer than our fair 1.21, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Samgurali 1–0 Gagra. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Samgurali60%fair 1.67 · @1.95
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.20
Gagra17%fair 5.87 · @3.30
2.81Expected goals
1.90Samgurali xG
0.91Gagra xG
59%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Samgurali 1.9 – 0.9 Gagra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Samgurali or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Samgurali vs Gagra?
On our numbers Samgurali have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Gagra 17%.
How many goals will there be in Samgurali vs Gagra?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Samgurali vs Gagra?
Our predicted score is Samgurali 1–0 Gagra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Samgurali vs Gagra?
Samgurali vs Gagra (Erovnuli Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
