Union San Felipe 32%Draw 29%San Marcos de Arica 39%Expected goals 0.90 – 1.16
65%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: San Marcos de Arica to win @ 2.80 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSan Marcos de Arica to win ✗39% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✗71% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.99
Union San Felipe vs San Marcos de Arica: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
22:00 WAT, Monday 23 March: Union San Felipe v San Marcos de Arica in the Primera B, played at Estadio Municipal de San Felipe. In the table, Union San Felipe are 15th, in the drop zone, on 23 points after 29 matches; San Marcos de Arica are 6th (upper half) with 43. There are 20 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Union San Felipe, last 3: LWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Recoleta, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
San Marcos de Arica, last 4: DDDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Santiago Wanderers, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Union San Felipe 0.9 xG, San Marcos de Arica 1.2 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Union San Felipe 32%, draw 29%, San Marcos de Arica 39%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: San Marcos de Arica to win @2.80 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Union San Felipe 0–1 San Marcos de Arica. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Union San Felipe32%fair 3.08 · @2.50
Draw29%fair 3.50 · @2.90
San Marcos de Arica39%fair 2.57 · @2.80
2.06Expected goals
0.90Union San Felipe xG
1.16San Marcos de Arica xG
50%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
1–113%
0–013%
1–012%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Union San Felipe 0.9 – 1.2 San Marcos de Arica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Marcos de Arica to win✗
39%
2.57
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
71%
1.40
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
2.05
Draw no bet
San Marcos de Arica (draw no bet)
55%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
Union San Felipe +1 (Asian handicap)✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.63
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
San Marcos de Arica to score first✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Marcos de Arica / FT San Marcos de Arica✗
24%
4.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.99
–
Recent results
Union San Felipe – last 3
LWL
13 Mar
@ Recoleta
0–2
L
6 Mar
vs Antofagasta
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ Deportes Iquique
0–5
L
0.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
San Marcos de Arica – last 4
DDDD
17 Mar
vs Santiago Wanderers
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Deportes Iquique
0–0
D
2 Mar
@ Magallanes
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Deportes Santa Cruz
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Union San Felipe and San Marcos de Arica.
What is the prediction for Union San Felipe vs San Marcos de Arica?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Union San Felipe vs San Marcos de Arica?
On our numbers Union San Felipe have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 29% and San Marcos de Arica 39%.
How many goals will there be in Union San Felipe vs San Marcos de Arica?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Union San Felipe vs San Marcos de Arica?
Our predicted score is Union San Felipe 0–1 San Marcos de Arica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Union San Felipe vs San Marcos de Arica?
Union San Felipe vs San Marcos de Arica (Primera B) kicks off on Monday 23 March 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de San Felipe.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
