Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSan Marcos de Arica to win ✓48% · @1.85
Double chanceSan Marcos de Arica or draw ✓75% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.92
San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
01:30 WAT, Tuesday 5 May: San Marcos de Arica v Recoleta in the Primera B, played at Estadio Carlos Dittborn. In the table, San Marcos de Arica are 6th, upper half, on 43 points after 29 matches; Recoleta are 7th (upper half) with 42. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
San Marcos de Arica, last 5: WDDDD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Rangers de Talca, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Recoleta, last 4: LWWW Their latest outing: 1–5 defeat to Deportes Temuco, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Recoleta, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.3 for San Marcos de Arica.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give San Marcos de Arica 1.5 xG, Recoleta 1.1 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – San Marcos de Arica 48%, draw 26%, Recoleta 25%.
Lower-risk option: San Marcos de Arica or draw (75%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: San Marcos de Arica 1–1 Recoleta. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
San Marcos de Arica48%fair 2.07 · @1.85
Draw26%fair 3.79 · @3.20
Recoleta25%fair 3.97 · @4.00
2.57Expected goals
1.49San Marcos de Arica xG
1.09Recoleta xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: San Marcos de Arica 1.5 – 1.1 Recoleta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Marcos de Arica to win✓
48%
2.07
1.85
Double chance
San Marcos de Arica or draw✓
75%
1.34
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.74
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
San Marcos de Arica (draw no bet)✓
66%
1.52
–
Asian handicap
Recoleta +1 (Asian handicap)
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
San Marcos de Arica to score first✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Marcos de Arica / FT San Marcos de Arica✗
28%
3.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.92
–
Recent results
San Marcos de Arica – last 6
WDDDDD
13 Apr
@ Rangers de Talca
3–2
W
23 Mar
@ Union San Felipe
1–1
D
17 Mar
vs Santiago Wanderers
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Deportes Iquique
0–0
D
2 Mar
@ Magallanes
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Deportes Santa Cruz
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Recoleta – last 4
LWWW
27 Mar
vs Deportes Temuco
1–5
L
13 Mar
vs Union San Felipe
2–0
W
27 Feb
vs Union Espanola
2–1
W
21 Feb
@ Santiago Wanderers
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Marcos de Arica and Recoleta.
What is the prediction for San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta?
On our numbers San Marcos de Arica have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Recoleta 25%.
How many goals will there be in San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta?
Our predicted score is San Marcos de Arica 1–1 Recoleta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta?
San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta (Primera B) kicks off on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Carlos Dittborn.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
