Value bet: Antofagasta to win @ 2.88 – our chance 40% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAntofagasta to win ✗40% · @2.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.12
San Marcos de Arica vs Antofagasta: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
San Marcos de Arica welcome Antofagasta to Estadio Carlos Dittborn for a Primera B fixture on Sunday 17 May (22:30 WAT). In the table, San Marcos de Arica are 6th, upper half, on 43 points after 29 matches; Antofagasta are 4th (among the top four) with 48.
Current form
San Marcos de Arica, last 5: DWWDD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Curico Unido, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Antofagasta, last 5: WDWLL Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Deportes Iquique, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give San Marcos de Arica 1.1 xG, Antofagasta 1.4 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – San Marcos de Arica 35%, draw 26%, Antofagasta 40%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Antofagasta to win @2.88 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: San Marcos de Arica 1–1 Antofagasta. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
San Marcos de Arica35%fair 2.90 · @2.25
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @3.20
Antofagasta40%fair 2.52 · @2.88
2.53Expected goals
1.09San Marcos de Arica xG
1.44Antofagasta xG
58%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: San Marcos de Arica 1.1 – 1.4 Antofagasta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Antofagasta to win✗
40%
2.52
2.88 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.73
Draw no bet
Antofagasta (draw no bet)
53%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
San Marcos de Arica +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
First team to score
Antofagasta to score first
52%
1.91
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Antofagasta / FT Antofagasta✗
27%
3.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.12
–
Recent results
San Marcos de Arica – last 6
DWWDDD
12 May
@ Curico Unido
2–2
D
5 May
vs Recoleta
1–0
W
13 Apr
@ Rangers de Talca
3–2
W
23 Mar
@ Union San Felipe
1–1
D
17 Mar
vs Santiago Wanderers
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Deportes Iquique
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Antofagasta – last 6
WDWLLW
29 Mar
vs Deportes Iquique
4–0
W
22 Mar
@ Santiago Wanderers
2–2
D
15 Mar
vs Union Espanola
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ Union San Felipe
0–2
L
1 Mar
vs D. Puerto Montt
1–2
L
22 Feb
@ Rangers de Talca
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Marcos de Arica and Antofagasta.
What is the prediction for San Marcos de Arica vs Antofagasta?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win San Marcos de Arica vs Antofagasta?
On our numbers San Marcos de Arica have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Antofagasta 40%.
How many goals will there be in San Marcos de Arica vs Antofagasta?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Marcos de Arica vs Antofagasta?
Our predicted score is San Marcos de Arica 1–1 Antofagasta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is San Marcos de Arica vs Antofagasta?
San Marcos de Arica vs Antofagasta (Primera B) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Carlos Dittborn.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
