Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 53% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAlianza Lima to win ✓57% · @1.61
Double chanceAlianza Lima or draw ✓82% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.67
Alianza Lima vs FBC Melgar: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 10 March the Primera División brings Alianza Lima against FBC Melgar at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva. Kick-off: 02:30 WAT. In the table, Alianza Lima are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 16 matches; FBC Melgar are 5th (upper half) with 29. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alianza Lima 1.6 xG, FBC Melgar 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alianza Lima 57%, draw 25%, FBC Melgar 18%.
Lower-risk option: Alianza Lima or draw (82%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alianza Lima 1–0 FBC Melgar. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alianza Lima57%fair 1.75 · @1.61
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @3.60
FBC Melgar18%fair 5.46 · @5.75
2.44Expected goals
1.61Alianza Lima xG
0.83FBC Melgar xG
53%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: Alianza Lima 1.6 – 0.8 FBC Melgar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Alianza Lima
FBC Melgar
Attack vs Primera División average
+7%
+13%
Goals conceded vs average
-31%
-16%
Our expected goals here
1.57
0.88
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Lima to win✓
57%
1.75
1.61
Double chance
Alianza Lima or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Alianza Lima (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
FBC Melgar +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
1.08
First team to score
Alianza Lima to score first
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Lima / FT Alianza Lima✗
34%
2.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.67
–
Recent results
Alianza Lima – last 2
WD
21 Feb
vs Sport Boys
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Alianza Atletico
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
FBC Melgar – last 2
LW
27 Feb
vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1–2
L
16 Feb
vs UCV Moquegua
4–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Lima and FBC Melgar.
What is the prediction for Alianza Lima vs FBC Melgar?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Alianza Lima vs FBC Melgar?
On our numbers Alianza Lima have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and FBC Melgar 18%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Lima vs FBC Melgar?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Lima vs FBC Melgar?
Our predicted score is Alianza Lima 1–0 FBC Melgar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Alianza Lima vs FBC Melgar?
Alianza Lima vs FBC Melgar (Primera División) kicks off on Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
