Value bet: Deportivo Garcilaso to win @ 2.55 – our chance 42% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDeportivo Garcilaso to win ✓42% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.90
Deportivo Garcilaso vs FBC Melgar: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
FBC Melgar travel to face Deportivo Garcilaso on Tuesday 28 April in the Primera División, with Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega the venue – the ball rolls at 01:00 WAT. In the table, Deportivo Garcilaso are 4th, among the top four, on 29 points after 16 matches; FBC Melgar are 5th (upper half) with 29. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Deportivo Garcilaso, last 5: LLDLL Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Universitario, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
FBC Melgar, last 5: WWDDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Universitario, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours FBC Melgar, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.2 for Deportivo Garcilaso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Garcilaso 1.5 xG, FBC Melgar 1.1 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Garcilaso 42%, draw 27%, FBC Melgar 32%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Deportivo Garcilaso to win @2.55 – the bookmaker implies 39%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Garcilaso 1–1 FBC Melgar. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportivo Garcilaso42%fair 2.38 · @2.55
Draw27%fair 3.77 · @3.05
FBC Melgar32%fair 3.17 · @2.85
2.65Expected goals
1.51Deportivo Garcilaso xG
1.14FBC Melgar xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Deportivo Garcilaso 1.5 – 1.1 FBC Melgar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Deportivo Garcilaso
FBC Melgar
Attack vs Primera División average
+16%
+13%
Goals conceded vs average
-15%
-16%
Our expected goals here
1.69
1.08
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Garcilaso to win✓
42%
2.38
2.55 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.36
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.83
Draw no bet
Deportivo Garcilaso (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
FBC Melgar +1 (Asian handicap)
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.07
First team to score
Deportivo Garcilaso to score first✓
53%
1.89
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Garcilaso / FT Deportivo Garcilaso✗
27%
3.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.90
–
Recent results
Deportivo Garcilaso – last 6
LLDLLL
23 Apr
@ Universitario
1–4
L
18 Apr
@ Sport Huancayo
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Alianza Lima
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Cusco
0–1
L
4 Mar
@ Alianza Atletico
0–2
L
28 Feb
vs Cienciano
2–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
FBC Melgar – last 6
WWDDLL
19 Apr
vs Universitario
2–1
W
15 Apr
@ Sport Boys
3–1
W
20 Mar
@ ADT
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Atletico Grau
0–0
D
10 Mar
@ Alianza Lima
1–3
L
27 Feb
vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Garcilaso and FBC Melgar.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Garcilaso vs FBC Melgar?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Deportivo Garcilaso vs FBC Melgar?
On our numbers Deportivo Garcilaso have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 27% and FBC Melgar 32%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Garcilaso vs FBC Melgar?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Garcilaso vs FBC Melgar?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Garcilaso 1–1 FBC Melgar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Garcilaso vs FBC Melgar?
Deportivo Garcilaso vs FBC Melgar (Primera División) kicks off on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
