Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 53% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDeportivo Garcilaso to win ✓62% · @1.71
Double chanceDeportivo Garcilaso or draw ✓84% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.22
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 11 May the Primera División brings Deportivo Garcilaso against Alianza Atletico at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, Deportivo Garcilaso are 4th, among the top four, on 29 points after 16 matches; Alianza Atletico are 7th (upper half) with 28. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Deportivo Garcilaso, last 5: WWLLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Club Deportivo Los Chankas, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Alianza Atletico, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to America de Cali, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Deportivo Garcilaso, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Alianza Atletico.
Head to head
When they last met (4 Mar 2026) it ended Alianza Atletico 2–0 Deportivo Garcilaso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Garcilaso 1.9 xG, Alianza Atletico 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Garcilaso 62%, draw 22%, Alianza Atletico 16%.
Lower-risk option: Deportivo Garcilaso or draw (84%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.42). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Garcilaso 2–0 Alianza Atletico. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportivo Garcilaso62%fair 1.61 · @1.71
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.45
Alianza Atletico16%fair 6.35 · @5.10
2.75Expected goals
1.91Deportivo Garcilaso xG
0.84Alianza Atletico xG
53%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%
From our goals model: Deportivo Garcilaso 1.9 – 0.8 Alianza Atletico expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Deportivo Garcilaso
Alianza Atletico
Attack vs Primera División average
+16%
+10%
Goals conceded vs average
-15%
+20%
Our expected goals here
2.43
1.05
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico?
On our numbers Deportivo Garcilaso have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Alianza Atletico 16%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Garcilaso 2–0 Alianza Atletico, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico?
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico (Primera División) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
