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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Ventura County v Tacoma Defiance: numbers & prediction

MLS Next Pro · USA · Dignity Health Sports Park
3–0
FT
Ventura County 59%Draw 15%Tacoma Defiance 25% Expected goals 2.13 – 1.29
66%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.35 · Lost ✗

6/10Rating
1.35Odds
1

Value bet: Ventura County to win @ 1.95 – our chance 59% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultVentura County to win ✓59% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗66% · @1.35
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓66% · fair 1.51
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.44

Ventura County vs Tacoma Defiance: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Ventura County welcome Tacoma Defiance to Dignity Health Sports Park for a MLS Next Pro fixture on Monday 14 September (03:00 WAT). In the table, Ventura County are 3rd, among the top four, on 53 points after 28 matches; Tacoma Defiance are 9th (upper half) with 41. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Ventura County, last 5: WDWDW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over The Town, away. 2.8 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Tacoma Defiance, last 5: WLWLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over The Town, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.

Momentum favours Ventura County, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.5 for Tacoma Defiance.

Head to head

When they last met (23 May 2026) it ended Tacoma Defiance 1–0 Ventura County.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Ventura County 2.1 xG, Tacoma Defiance 1.3 xG – a total near 3.4. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 66% and GG at 66%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Ventura County 59%, draw 15%, Tacoma Defiance 25%.
  • GG/NG: GG (66%) at 1.35.
  • Price worth noting: Ventura County to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 59%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (66%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ventura County 2–1 Tacoma Defiance. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Ventura County59%fair 1.69 · @1.95
Draw15%fair 6.47 · @3.40
Tacoma Defiance25%fair 3.96 · @3.00
3.42Expected goals
2.13Ventura County xG
1.29Tacoma Defiance xG
66%Both score
66%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–110%
1–19%
2–07%
1–07%
3–17%
2–26%

From our goals model: Ventura County 2.1 – 1.3 Tacoma Defiance expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultVentura County to win ✓59%1.691.95 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85%1.181.25 ▲
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗66%1.511.35
Draw no betVentura County (draw no bet) ✓70%1.43–
Asian handicapTacoma Defiance +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✗65%1.53–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓86%1.17–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓66%1.51–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓55%1.81–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓74%1.35–
First team to scoreVentura County to score first ✓60%1.66–
Half-time resultVentura County ahead at half-time ✗43%2.33–
Half-time / full-timeHT Ventura County / FT Ventura County ✗36%2.77–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.44–

Recent results

Ventura County – last 6

WDWDWW
10 Sep@ The Town3–1W
6 Sep@ Los Angeles FC II1–1D
29 Aug@ Colorado Rapids II3–2W
24 Augvs Portland Timbers II2–2D
15 Aug@ Houston Dynamo FC II2–0W
1 Augvs North Texas6–1W
2.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Tacoma Defiance – last 6

WLWLLW
6 Sep@ The Town2–1W
31 Aug@ Real Monarchs0–3L
25 Augvs Sporting KC II4–0W
17 Aug@ Los Angeles FC II3–4L
9 Aug@ North Texas1–3L
2 Augvs Vancouver Whitecaps II4–2W
2.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Head to head

23 May 2026Tacoma Defiance v Ventura County1–0
Ventura County vs Tacoma Defiance head-to-head page →

MLS Next Pro table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Portland Timbers II281909+857
2Ventura County2818010+2253
3Los Angeles FC II2814014+245
4The Town2814014+1542
5Tacoma Defiance2814014-441
6Real Monarchs2812016-1733
7Vancouver Whitecaps II2810018-2327

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Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ventura County vs Tacoma Defiance?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.

Who will win Ventura County vs Tacoma Defiance?

On our numbers Ventura County have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Tacoma Defiance 25%.

How many goals will there be in Ventura County vs Tacoma Defiance?

We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Ventura County vs Tacoma Defiance?

Our predicted score is Ventura County 2–1 Tacoma Defiance, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.

When is Ventura County vs Tacoma Defiance?

Ventura County vs Tacoma Defiance (MLS Next Pro) kicks off on Monday 14 September 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Dignity Health Sports Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.