Value bet: USM Alger to win @ 2.60 – our chance 44% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultUSM Alger to win ✗44% · @2.60
Double chanceUSM Alger or draw ✓75% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓71% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.48
El Bayadh vs USM Alger: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 27 February the Ligue 1 brings El Bayadh against USM Alger at Zakaria Medjdoub Stadium. Kick-off: 14:30 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give El Bayadh 0.7 xG, USM Alger 1.2 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 71%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – El Bayadh 25%, draw 30%, USM Alger 44%.
Lower-risk option: USM Alger or draw (75%) at 1.35.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.44.
Price worth noting: USM Alger to win @2.60 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was USM Alger or draw (75%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: El Bayadh 0–1 USM Alger. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
El Bayadh25%fair 3.98 · @3.10
Draw30%fair 3.29 · @2.60
USM Alger44%fair 2.25 · @2.60
1.91Expected goals
0.68El Bayadh xG
1.23USM Alger xG
48%Both score
29%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–118%
0–015%
1–112%
0–211%
1–010%
1–28%
From our goals model: El Bayadh 0.7 – 1.2 USM Alger expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
USM Alger to win✗
44%
2.25
2.60 ▲
Double chance
USM Alger or draw✓
75%
1.34
1.35
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.44
Draw no bet
USM Alger (draw no bet)
64%
1.57
–
Asian handicap
El Bayadh +1 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.77
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.28
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
96%
1.05
–
First team to score
USM Alger to score first✗
55%
1.82
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT USM Alger / FT USM Alger✗
29%
3.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
18%
5.48
–
Recent results
El Bayadh – last 2
DL
20 Feb
@ CR Belouizdad
0–0
D
13 Feb
vs ASO Chlef
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
USM Alger
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between El Bayadh and USM Alger.
What is the prediction for El Bayadh vs USM Alger?
Our pick is USM Alger or draw with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win El Bayadh vs USM Alger?
On our numbers El Bayadh have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 30% and USM Alger 44%.
How many goals will there be in El Bayadh vs USM Alger?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 29% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for El Bayadh vs USM Alger?
Our predicted score is El Bayadh 0–1 USM Alger, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is El Bayadh vs USM Alger?
El Bayadh vs USM Alger (Ligue 1) kicks off on Friday 27 February 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Zakaria Medjdoub Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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