Carlos Renaux 28%Draw 24%Marcílio Dias 48%Expected goals 0.93 – 1.34
79%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultMarcílio Dias to win ✗48% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.61
Carlos Renaux vs Marcílio Dias: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Marcílio Dias travel to face Carlos Renaux on Thursday 26 February in the Catarinense 1 – the ball rolls at 23:30 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Carlos Renaux 0.9 xG, Marcílio Dias 1.3 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Carlos Renaux 28%, draw 24%, Marcílio Dias 48%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Carlos Renaux 0–1 Marcílio Dias. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Carlos Renaux28%fair 3.60 · @3.30
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.00
Marcílio Dias48%fair 2.08 · @2.15
2.26Expected goals
0.93Carlos Renaux xG
1.34Marcílio Dias xG
55%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–010%
1–010%
0–29%
1–29%
From our goals model: Carlos Renaux 0.9 – 1.3 Marcílio Dias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marcílio Dias to win✗
48%
2.08
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.85
Draw no bet
Marcílio Dias (draw no bet)✗
63%
1.58
–
Asian handicap
Carlos Renaux +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Marcílio Dias to score first✗
53%
1.89
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marcílio Dias / FT Marcílio Dias✗
27%
3.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.61
–
Recent results
Carlos Renaux – last 2
WL
19 Feb
vs Joinville
2–1
W
14 Feb
@ Joinville
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Marcílio Dias – last 1
W
21 Feb
@ Figueirense
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Carlos Renaux and Marcílio Dias.
What is the prediction for Carlos Renaux vs Marcílio Dias?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Carlos Renaux vs Marcílio Dias?
On our numbers Carlos Renaux have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Marcílio Dias 48%.
How many goals will there be in Carlos Renaux vs Marcílio Dias?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Carlos Renaux vs Marcílio Dias?
Our predicted score is Carlos Renaux 0–1 Marcílio Dias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Carlos Renaux vs Marcílio Dias?
Carlos Renaux vs Marcílio Dias (Catarinense 1) kicks off on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Catarinense 1 · Brazil
