Nzoia Sugar v Mwatate United Prediction & Expected Goals (21 Mar) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultNzoia Sugar to win55% · @1.53

Double chanceNzoia Sugar or draw82% · @1.07

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score55% · fair 1.81

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals82% · fair 1.22

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–015% · fair 6.47

Nzoia Sugar vs Mwatate United: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Mwatate United travel to face Nzoia Sugar on Saturday 21 March in the Super League – the ball rolls at 13:00 WAT.

Current form

Nzoia Sugar, last 4: WDWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Kisumu All Stars, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Mwatate United, last 3: WLD Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Gucha Stars, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Nzoia Sugar 1.4 xG, Mwatate United 0.8 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Nzoia Sugar 55%, draw 26%, Mwatate United 18%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (62%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nzoia Sugar 1–0 Mwatate United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Nzoia Sugar55%fair 1.81 · @1.53

Draw26%fair 3.79 · @3.25

Mwatate United18%fair 5.47 · @6.50

2.19Expected goals

1.39Nzoia Sugar xG

0.81Mwatate United xG

45%Both score

38%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%

1–112%

0–011%

2–011%

0–19%

2–19%

From our goals model: Nzoia Sugar 1.4 – 0.8 Mwatate United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Nzoia Sugar to win	55%	1.81	1.53
Double chance	Nzoia Sugar or draw	82%	1.22	1.07
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score	55%	1.81	–
Draw no bet	Nzoia Sugar (draw no bet)	75%	1.33	–
Asian handicap	Mwatate United +1 (Asian handicap)	67%	1.50	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	64%	1.55	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals	62%	1.62	1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	82%	1.22	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals	93%	1.08	–
First team to score	Nzoia Sugar to score first	56%	1.78	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time	47%	2.14	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Nzoia Sugar / FT Nzoia Sugar	30%	3.35	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0	15%	6.47	–

Nzoia Sugar – last 4

WDWL

8 Mar	@ Kisumu All Stars	1–0	W
1 Mar	vs Nairobi City Stars	0–0	D
20 Feb	@ Vihiga United FC	4–0	W
15 Feb	vs Gucha Stars	0–2	L

1.3Scored / game

0.5Conceded / game

0%Both scored

25%Over 2.5

Mwatate United – last 3

WLD

28 Feb	vs Gucha Stars	3–1	W
22 Feb	@ Kabati Youth FC	0–2	L
15 Feb	vs Darajani Gogo	2–2	D

1.7Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sofapaka	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Nairobi City Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Kariobangi Sharks	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Nzoia Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Naivas	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Kibera Black Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Talanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Kisumu All Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Fortune Sacco	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Soy United	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Equity Bank	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Luanda Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	MOFA	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Kibera Soccer	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Kabati Youth FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Gucha Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Mfalme	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Kiminini Combined	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	BB FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Spitfire FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Team

Pts

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Nzoia Sugar vs Mwatate United?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.

Who will win Nzoia Sugar vs Mwatate United?

On our numbers Nzoia Sugar have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Mwatate United 18%.

How many goals will there be in Nzoia Sugar vs Mwatate United?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Nzoia Sugar vs Mwatate United?

Our predicted score is Nzoia Sugar 1–0 Mwatate United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is Nzoia Sugar vs Mwatate United?

Nzoia Sugar vs Mwatate United (Super League) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Nzoia Sugar v Mwatate United: numbers & prediction