União Santarém vs Mafra: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:00 WAT, Wednesday 4 March: União Santarém v Mafra in the Liga 3, played at Campo Cha das Padeiras. In the table, União Santarém are 4th, among the top four, on 13 points after 9 matches; Mafra are 5th (upper half) with 12. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Mafra, last 3: DLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Trofense, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give União Santarém 1.4 xG, Mafra 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – União Santarém 34%, draw 27%, Mafra 39%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 2.00 – longer than our fair 1.80, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: União Santarém 1–1 Mafra. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
União Santarém34%fair 2.94 · @3.00
Draw27%fair 3.72 · @2.75
Mafra39%fair 2.56 · @2.38
2.79Expected goals
1.38União Santarém xG
1.41Mafra xG
56%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–08%
1–28%
2–18%
0–06%
From our goals model: União Santarém 1.4 – 1.4 Mafra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mafra to win✗
39%
2.56
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.40
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Mafra (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
União Santarém +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
Mafra to score first
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mafra / FT Mafra✗
22%
4.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.87
–
Recent results
União Santarém – last 1
L
21 Feb
vs Guimaraes B
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Mafra – last 3
DLW
27 Feb
@ Trofense
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Amarante
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Varzim
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between União Santarém and Mafra.
What is the prediction for União Santarém vs Mafra?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win União Santarém vs Mafra?
On our numbers União Santarém have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Mafra 39%.
How many goals will there be in União Santarém vs Mafra?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for União Santarém vs Mafra?
Our predicted score is União Santarém 1–1 Mafra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is União Santarém vs Mafra?
União Santarém vs Mafra (Liga 3) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo Cha das Padeiras.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
