Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.65Odds
Picks by market
ResultNavbahor to win ✓60% · @1.57
Double chanceNavbahor or draw ✓85% · @1.08
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.66
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.56
Navbahor vs Surkhon: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Navbahor welcome Surkhon to Markaziy Stadium for a Super League fixture on Sunday 12 April (12:00 WAT). In the table, Navbahor are 3rd, among the top four, on 55 points after 27 matches; Surkhon are 10th (lower half) with 31. There are 24 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Navbahor, last 5: WWLWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Andijan, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Surkhon, last 5: DWDLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Olmaliq, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Navbahor 1.5 xG, Surkhon 0.6 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 59% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Navbahor 60%, draw 25%, Surkhon 15%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (59%, odds 1.65). Most likely score in line with that pick: Navbahor 1–0 Surkhon. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Navbahor60%fair 1.67 · @1.57
Draw25%fair 3.92 · @3.45
Surkhon15%fair 6.79 · @5.10
2.15Expected goals
1.54Navbahor xG
0.61Surkhon xG
40%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–014%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Navbahor 1.5 – 0.6 Surkhon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Navbahor to win✓
60%
1.67
1.57
Double chance
Navbahor or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.08
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
–
Draw no bet
Navbahor (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Navbahor -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Navbahor to score first✓
63%
1.58
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Navbahor / FT Navbahor✓
37%
2.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.56
–
Recent results
Navbahor – last 6
WWLWLD
7 Apr
@ Andijan
1–0
W
3 Apr
vs Mash'al
2–1
W
18 Mar
@ Kokand-1912
1–2
L
10 Mar
@ Pakhtakor
2–0
W
5 Mar
vs Buxoro
0–1
L
16 Feb
@ Dinamo Tbilisi
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Surkhon – last 5
DWDLW
8 Apr
@ Olmaliq
1–1
D
20 Mar
@ Nasaf
1–0
W
11 Mar
vs Bunyodkor
0–0
D
5 Mar
vs Neftchi
0–3
L
17 Feb
@ Rotor Volgograd
1–0
W
0.6Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Navbahor and Surkhon.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Navbahor vs Surkhon?
On our numbers Navbahor have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Surkhon 15%.
How many goals will there be in Navbahor vs Surkhon?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Navbahor vs Surkhon?
Our predicted score is Navbahor 1–0 Surkhon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Navbahor vs Surkhon?
Navbahor vs Surkhon (Super League) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Markaziy Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
