Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.29 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.29Odds
2
Value bet: Neftchi to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNeftchi to win ✓56% · @1.95
Double chanceNeftchi or draw ✓82% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.08
Lokomotiv vs Neftchi: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lokomotiv welcome Neftchi to Lokomotiv Stadium for a Super League fixture on Sunday 20 September (15:30 WAT). In the table, Lokomotiv are 6th, upper half, on 43 points after 27 matches; Neftchi are 1st (leading the league) with 61. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Lokomotiv, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Bunyodkor, away. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Neftchi, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Al Quwa Al Jawiya, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (20 Mar 2026) it ended Neftchi 3–1 Lokomotiv.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lokomotiv 1.1 xG, Neftchi 2.0 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 59% and GG at 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lokomotiv 18%, draw 26%, Neftchi 56%.
Lower-risk option: Neftchi or draw (82%) at 1.29.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: Neftchi to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Neftchi or draw (82%, odds 1.29 – longer than our fair 1.22, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lokomotiv 1–1 Neftchi. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lokomotiv18%fair 5.51 · @3.30
Draw26%fair 3.81 · @3.20
Neftchi56%fair 1.80 · @1.95
3.07Expected goals
1.09Lokomotiv xG
1.98Neftchi xG
59%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–210%
0–19%
0–29%
1–37%
0–36%
From our goals model: Lokomotiv 1.1 – 2.0 Neftchi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Neftchi or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Lokomotiv vs Neftchi?
On our numbers Lokomotiv have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Neftchi 56%.
How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv vs Neftchi?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lokomotiv vs Neftchi?
Our predicted score is Lokomotiv 1–1 Neftchi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Lokomotiv vs Neftchi?
Lokomotiv vs Neftchi (Super League) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Lokomotiv Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
