Arsenal vs Manchester City: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Manchester City travel to face Arsenal on Sunday 22 March in the League Cup, with Wembley Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 17:30 WAT.
Current form
Arsenal, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Bayer Leverkusen, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Manchester City, last 3: LLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Real Madrid, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Arsenal, collecting 2.7 points per game to 0.3 for Manchester City.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arsenal 1.6 xG, Manchester City 1.1 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arsenal 45%, draw 26%, Manchester City 29%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arsenal 1–1 Manchester City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arsenal45%fair 2.24 · @2.35
Draw26%fair 3.79 · @3.05
Manchester City29%fair 3.46 · @3.15
2.72Expected goals
1.58Arsenal xG
1.14Manchester City xG
59%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Arsenal 1.6 – 1.1 Manchester City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arsenal to win✗
45%
2.24
2.35 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.36
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.75
Draw no bet
Arsenal (draw no bet)✗
61%
1.65
–
Asian handicap
Manchester City +1 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.09
First team to score
Arsenal to score first✗
54%
1.84
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arsenal / FT Arsenal✗
29%
3.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.67
–
Recent results
Arsenal – last 6
WDWWWW
17 Mar
vs Bayer Leverkusen
2–0
W
11 Mar
@ Bayer Leverkusen
1–1
D
7 Mar
@ Mansfield Town
2–1
W
4 Mar
@ Brighton
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Chelsea
2–1
W
22 Feb
@ Tottenham
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Manchester City – last 3
LLD
17 Mar
vs Real Madrid
1–2
L
11 Mar
@ Real Madrid
0–3
L
4 Mar
vs Nottingham Forest
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arsenal and Manchester City.
What is the prediction for Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Arsenal vs Manchester City?
On our numbers Arsenal have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Manchester City 29%.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Manchester City?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Our predicted score is Arsenal 1–1 Manchester City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Arsenal vs Manchester City (League Cup) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Wembley Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
