Leones del Norte 38%Draw 28%Libertad 34%Expected goals 0.91 – 0.88
69%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.46 · bookmaker 1.48
7/10Rating
1.48Odds
2
Value bet: Libertad to win @ 3.70 – our chance 34% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultLeones del Norte to win38% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score54% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals69% · @1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–015% · fair 6.60
Leones del Norte vs Libertad: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Leones del Norte welcome Libertad to Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra for a Liga Pro fixture on Saturday 28 February (19:00 WAT). In the table, Leones del Norte are 9th on 47 points after 36 matches; Libertad are 7th with 51.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leones del Norte 0.9 xG, Libertad 0.9 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 69%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leones del Norte 38%, draw 28%, Libertad 34%.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Libertad to win @3.70 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (69%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leones del Norte 0–0 Libertad. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leones del Norte38%fair 2.63 · @2.12
Draw28%fair 3.61 · @3.05
Libertad34%fair 2.92 · @3.70
1.79Expected goals
0.91Leones del Norte xG
0.88Libertad xG
46%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–017%
1–015%
0–115%
1–113%
2–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Leones del Norte 0.9 – 0.9 Libertad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leones del Norte to win
38%
2.63
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win
72%
1.38
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
54%
1.87
1.62
Draw no bet
Leones del Norte (draw no bet)
53%
1.90
–
Asian handicap
Libertad +0.5 (Asian handicap)
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
57%
1.74
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
69%
1.46
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
86%
1.17
1.15
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
94%
1.07
1.04
First team to score
Leones del Norte to score first
42%
2.37
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw
25%
4.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
15%
6.60
–
Recent results
Leones del Norte – last 1
D
22 Feb
@ Macara
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Libertad – last 1
W
24 Feb
vs Manta FC
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones del Norte and Libertad.
What is the prediction for Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
On our numbers Leones del Norte have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Libertad 34%.
How many goals will there be in Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
Our predicted score is Leones del Norte 0–0 Libertad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
Leones del Norte vs Libertad (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
