Value bet: Independiente del Valle to win @ 2.18 – our chance 52% vs 46% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✗52% · @2.18
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✗77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.39
Emelec vs Independiente del Valle: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Emelec welcome Independiente del Valle to Estadio George Capwell for a Liga Pro fixture on Friday 20 March (01:00 WAT). In the table, Emelec are 10th on 45 points after 36 matches; Independiente del Valle are 1st with 84. There are 39 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Emelec 0.9 xG, Independiente del Valle 1.7 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Emelec 23%, draw 25%, Independiente del Valle 52%.
Lower-risk option: Independiente del Valle or draw (77%) at 1.28.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Independiente del Valle to win @2.18 – the bookmaker implies 46%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Independiente del Valle or draw (77%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Emelec 0–1 Independiente del Valle. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Emelec23%fair 4.39 · @3.50
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.10
Independiente del Valle52%fair 1.93 · @2.18
2.57Expected goals
0.88Emelec xG
1.69Independiente del Valle xG
51%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–08%
1–07%
From our goals model: Emelec 0.9 – 1.7 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✗
52%
1.93
2.18 ▲
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw✗
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
1.85
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)✗
69%
1.44
–
Asian handicap
Emelec +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
1.06
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first✗
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✗
35%
2.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.39
–
Recent results
Emelec – last 1
D
1 Mar
vs Delfin SC
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Independiente del Valle – last 2
WW
3 Mar
@ Manta FC
2–0
W
23 Feb
vs Guayaquil City FC
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Emelec and Independiente del Valle.
What is the prediction for Emelec vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Independiente del Valle or draw with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Emelec vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers Emelec have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Independiente del Valle 52%.
How many goals will there be in Emelec vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Emelec vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is Emelec 0–1 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Emelec vs Independiente del Valle?
Emelec vs Independiente del Valle (Liga Pro) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio George Capwell.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
