Value bet: Libertad to win @ 2.26 – our chance 47% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLibertad to win ✗47% · @2.26
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.02
Libertad vs Mushuc Runa SC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
01:00 WAT, Tuesday 7 April: Libertad v Mushuc Runa SC in the Liga Pro, played at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne. In the table, Libertad are 7th on 51 points after 36 matches; Mushuc Runa SC are 12th with 43.
Current form
Libertad, last 5: DLWLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Barcelona SC, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Mushuc Runa SC, last 3: WLD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Emelec, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Libertad 1.5 xG, Mushuc Runa SC 0.9 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Libertad 47%, draw 25%, Mushuc Runa SC 28%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Libertad to win @2.26 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 47%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Libertad 1–0 Mushuc Runa SC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Libertad47%fair 2.11 · @2.26
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.35
Mushuc Runa SC28%fair 3.60 · @3.00
2.39Expected goals
1.46Libertad xG
0.93Mushuc Runa SC xG
51%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–112%
2–010%
0–09%
2–19%
0–19%
From our goals model: Libertad 1.5 – 0.9 Mushuc Runa SC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Libertad to win✗
47%
2.11
2.26 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
1.83
Draw no bet
Libertad (draw no bet)
63%
1.59
–
Asian handicap
Mushuc Runa SC +1 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.07
First team to score
Libertad to score first
55%
1.80
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Libertad / FT Libertad✗
29%
3.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.02
–
Recent results
Libertad – last 5
DLWLW
19 Mar
vs Barcelona SC
0–0
D
13 Mar
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs LDU de Quito
2–1
W
5 Mar
@ Deportivo Cuenca
0–3
L
24 Feb
vs Manta FC
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Mushuc Runa SC – last 3
WLD
23 Mar
vs Emelec
2–0
W
19 Mar
@ Orense SC
2–3
L
15 Mar
vs Macara
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Libertad and Mushuc Runa SC.
What is the prediction for Libertad vs Mushuc Runa SC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Libertad vs Mushuc Runa SC?
On our numbers Libertad have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Mushuc Runa SC 28%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad vs Mushuc Runa SC?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertad vs Mushuc Runa SC?
Our predicted score is Libertad 1–0 Mushuc Runa SC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Libertad vs Mushuc Runa SC?
Libertad vs Mushuc Runa SC (Liga Pro) kicks off on Tuesday 7 April 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
