Independiente del Valle 57%Draw 25%LDU de Quito 18%Expected goals 1.76 – 0.85
82%
Betarazi pick
Independiente del Valle or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Independiente del Valle to win @ 1.90 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win57% · @1.90
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.32
Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 19 April the Liga Pro brings Independiente del Valle against LDU de Quito at Estadio Banco Guayaquil. Kick-off: 21:30 WAT. In the table, Independiente del Valle are 1st on 84 points after 35 matches; LDU de Quito are 4th with 54. There are 30 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Independiente del Valle, last 5: WDLWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over UCV, at home. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
LDU de Quito, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Mirassol, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente del Valle 1.8 xG, LDU de Quito 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente del Valle 57%, draw 25%, LDU de Quito 18%.
Lower-risk option: Independiente del Valle or draw (82%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Independiente del Valle to win @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Independiente del Valle or draw (82%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente del Valle 1–0 LDU de Quito. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente del Valle57%fair 1.75 · @1.90
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.45
LDU de Quito18%fair 5.64 · @3.95
2.62Expected goals
1.76Independiente del Valle xG
0.85LDU de Quito xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 1.8 – 0.9 LDU de Quito expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win
57%
1.75
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw
82%
1.22
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
55%
1.81
1.70
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
LDU de Quito +1.5 (Asian handicap)
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
51%
1.96
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
86%
1.16
1.11
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first
62%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle
37%
2.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.32
–
Recent results
Independiente del Valle – last 5
WDLWW
16 Apr
vs UCV
3–1
W
9 Apr
@ Rosario Central
0–0
D
20 Mar
@ Emelec
0–2
L
3 Mar
@ Manta FC
2–0
W
23 Feb
vs Guayaquil City FC
2–0
W
1.4Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
LDU de Quito – last 6
WLWLWW
15 Apr
vs Mirassol
2–0
W
11 Apr
@ Delfin SC
0–1
L
8 Apr
@ Always Ready
1–0
W
4 Apr
vs Barcelona SC
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Manta FC
1–0
W
18 Mar
@ Leones del Norte
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente del Valle and LDU de Quito.
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito?
Our pick is Independiente del Valle or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito?
On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and LDU de Quito 18%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito?
Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 1–0 LDU de Quito, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito?
Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
