Leones del Norte 35%Draw 28%Aucas 37%Expected goals 1.13 – 1.10
64%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.48 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAucas to win ✓37% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.60
Leones del Norte vs Aucas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:00 WAT, Friday 17 April: Leones del Norte v Aucas in the Liga Pro, played at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra. In the table, Leones del Norte are 9th on 47 points after 36 matches; Aucas are 5th with 54.
Current form
Leones del Norte, last 5: LWDLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Barcelona SC, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Aucas, last 5: WWWLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Emelec, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Aucas, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for Leones del Norte.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leones del Norte 1.1 xG, Aucas 1.1 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 38%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leones del Norte 35%, draw 28%, Aucas 37%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (64%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leones del Norte 1–1 Aucas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leones del Norte35%fair 2.86 · @2.78
Draw28%fair 3.61 · @3.05
Aucas37%fair 2.68 · @2.60
2.23Expected goals
1.13Leones del Norte xG
1.10Aucas xG
54%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Leones del Norte 1.1 – 1.1 Aucas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aucas to win✓
37%
2.68
2.60
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Aucas (draw no bet)✓
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
Aucas +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.55
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
1.05
First team to score
Leones del Norte to score first✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leones del Norte / FT Leones del Norte✗
20%
4.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
13.60
–
Recent results
Leones del Norte – last 6
LWDLDD
11 Apr
@ Barcelona SC
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Delfin SC
1–0
W
23 Mar
@ Guayaquil City FC
0–0
D
18 Mar
vs LDU de Quito
0–2
L
14 Mar
@ Deportivo Cuenca
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Macara
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Aucas – last 5
WWWLL
13 Apr
vs Emelec
2–0
W
6 Apr
@ Macara
1–0
W
24 Mar
vs Orense SC
3–2
W
19 Mar
vs Tecnico Universitario
0–1
L
8 Mar
vs Deportivo Cuenca
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones del Norte and Aucas.
What is the prediction for Leones del Norte vs Aucas?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Aucas?
On our numbers Leones del Norte have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Aucas 37%.
How many goals will there be in Leones del Norte vs Aucas?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones del Norte vs Aucas?
Our predicted score is Leones del Norte 1–1 Aucas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Leones del Norte vs Aucas?
Leones del Norte vs Aucas (Liga Pro) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
