Value bet: Independiente del Valle to win @ 2.75 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✓40% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.14
Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Universidad Catolica welcome Independiente del Valle to Olimpico Atahualpa for a Liga Pro fixture on Friday 1 May (22:30 WAT). In the table, Universidad Catolica are 3rd on 54 points after 36 matches; Independiente del Valle are 1st with 84. There are 30 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Universidad Catolica, last 5: LWDWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Manta FC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Independiente del Valle, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Libertad Asuncion, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Independiente del Valle, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for Universidad Catolica.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Universidad Catolica 1.3 xG, Independiente del Valle 1.5 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Universidad Catolica 35%, draw 25%, Independiente del Valle 40%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Independiente del Valle to win @2.75 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Universidad Catolica 1–1 Independiente del Valle. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Universidad Catolica35%fair 2.83 · @2.48
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @3.30
Independiente del Valle40%fair 2.52 · @2.75
2.75Expected goals
1.25Universidad Catolica xG
1.50Independiente del Valle xG
59%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Universidad Catolica 1.3 – 1.5 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
40%
2.52
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
1.67
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.89
–
Asian handicap
Universidad Catolica +1 (Asian handicap)
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.42
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
85%
1.17
1.11
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first
51%
1.96
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✓
25%
3.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.14
–
Recent results
Universidad Catolica – last 6
LWDWDL
27 Apr
@ Manta FC
0–1
L
24 Apr
vs Macara
4–0
W
9 Apr
vs Emelec
1–1
D
17 Mar
vs Deportivo Cuenca
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ LDU de Quito
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Juventud
3–4
L
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Independiente del Valle – last 6
WWWDLW
28 Apr
@ Libertad Asuncion
3–2
W
22 Apr
@ Delfin SC
1–0
W
16 Apr
vs UCV
3–1
W
9 Apr
@ Rosario Central
0–0
D
20 Mar
@ Emelec
0–2
L
3 Mar
@ Manta FC
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Universidad Catolica and Independiente del Valle.
What is the prediction for Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers Universidad Catolica have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Independiente del Valle 40%.
How many goals will there be in Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is Universidad Catolica 1–1 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle?
Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle (Liga Pro) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Olimpico Atahualpa.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
