Value bet: Leones del Norte to win @ 3.65 – our chance 30% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultUniversidad Catolica to win ✗45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.12
Leones del Norte vs Universidad Catolica: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 10 July the Liga Pro brings Leones del Norte against Universidad Catolica at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra. Kick-off: 23:00 WAT. In the table, Leones del Norte are 9th on 47 points after 36 matches; Universidad Catolica are 3rd with 54.
Current form
Leones del Norte, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Libertad, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Universidad Catolica, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Mushuc Runa SC, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Leones del Norte, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.5 for Universidad Catolica.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leones del Norte 1.1 xG, Universidad Catolica 1.5 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leones del Norte 30%, draw 25%, Universidad Catolica 45%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Leones del Norte to win @3.65 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leones del Norte 1–1 Universidad Catolica. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leones del Norte30%fair 3.34 · @3.65
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.35
Universidad Catolica45%fair 2.24 · @2.00
2.59Expected goals
1.14Leones del Norte xG
1.45Universidad Catolica xG
56%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Leones del Norte 1.1 – 1.5 Universidad Catolica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Universidad Catolica to win✗
45%
2.24
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.77
Draw no bet
Universidad Catolica (draw no bet)✗
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Leones del Norte +1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.09
First team to score
Universidad Catolica to score first✗
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Universidad Catolica / FT Universidad Catolica✗
26%
3.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.12
–
Recent results
Leones del Norte – last 6
WDWLWL
4 Jul
@ Libertad
3–1
W
1 Jun
vs Macara
1–1
D
30 May
@ Huaquillas
1–0
W
24 May
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–2
L
17 May
vs Mushuc Runa SC
3–1
W
9 May
@ Orense SC
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Universidad Catolica – last 6
LLWLLL
6 Jul
vs Mushuc Runa SC
2–3
L
1 Jun
@ Emelec
0–1
L
29 May
@ El Nacional
4–1
W
13 May
vs Independiente del Valle
0–3
L
1 May
vs Independiente del Valle
2–3
L
27 Apr
@ Manta FC
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones del Norte and Universidad Catolica.
What is the prediction for Leones del Norte vs Universidad Catolica?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Universidad Catolica?
On our numbers Leones del Norte have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Universidad Catolica 45%.
How many goals will there be in Leones del Norte vs Universidad Catolica?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones del Norte vs Universidad Catolica?
Our predicted score is Leones del Norte 1–1 Universidad Catolica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Leones del Norte vs Universidad Catolica?
Leones del Norte vs Universidad Catolica (Liga Pro) kicks off on Friday 10 July 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
