Value bet: Independiente del Valle to win @ 2.26 – our chance 49% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✓49% · @2.26
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.33
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Independiente del Valle travel to face Aucas on Thursday 16 July in the Liga Pro, with Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda the venue – the ball rolls at 22:30 WAT. In the table, Aucas are 5th on 54 points after 36 matches; Independiente del Valle are 1st with 84. There are 30 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Aucas, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Deportivo Cuenca, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Independiente del Valle, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Mushuc Runa SC, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.8 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Aucas 1.0 xG, Independiente del Valle 1.7 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Aucas 26%, draw 24%, Independiente del Valle 49%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Independiente del Valle to win @2.26 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 49%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aucas 1–1 Independiente del Valle. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Aucas26%fair 3.78 · @3.00
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.35
Independiente del Valle49%fair 2.03 · @2.26
2.70Expected goals
1.02Aucas xG
1.68Independiente del Valle xG
58%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–210%
0–210%
1–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Aucas 1.0 – 1.7 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
49%
2.03
2.26 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.75
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)✓
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
Aucas +1 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.09
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first✓
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✓
32%
3.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.33
–
Recent results
Aucas – last 6
WWDWWL
12 Jul
@ Deportivo Cuenca
1–0
W
8 Jul
vs Guayaquil City FC
1–0
W
31 May
@ Mushuc Runa SC
0–0
D
26 May
vs Manta FC
3–1
W
21 May
@ San Antonio
3–0
W
17 May
@ Barcelona SC
0–3
L
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Independiente del Valle – last 6
WWWWWL
11 Jul
@ Mushuc Runa SC
4–1
W
8 Jul
@ Santo Domingo
2–0
W
4 Jul
vs Manta FC
4–0
W
31 May
@ Guayaquil City FC
4–2
W
27 May
vs Rosario Central
1–0
W
23 May
vs Libertad
2–3
L
2.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aucas and Independiente del Valle.
What is the prediction for Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers Aucas have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Independiente del Valle 49%.
How many goals will there be in Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is Aucas 1–1 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle (Liga Pro) kicks off on Thursday 16 July 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
