Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultLibertad to win ✗45% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.25
Libertad vs Emelec: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Emelec travel to face Libertad on Friday 4 September in the Liga Pro, with Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne the venue – the ball rolls at 01:00 WAT. In the table, Libertad are 7th on 51 points after 36 matches; Emelec are 10th with 45.
Current form
Libertad, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Aucas, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Emelec, last 5: WLWDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Leones del Norte, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Libertad, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Emelec.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Libertad 1.2 xG, Emelec 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Libertad 45%, draw 23%, Emelec 31%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Libertad 1–0 Emelec. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Libertad45%fair 2.21 · @2.28
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.15
Emelec31%fair 3.18 · @3.15
2.20Expected goals
1.24Libertad xG
0.96Emelec xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Libertad 1.2 – 1.0 Emelec expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Libertad to win✗
45%
2.21
2.28
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
1.95
Draw no bet
Libertad (draw no bet)
59%
1.69
–
Asian handicap
Emelec +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
1.05
First team to score
Libertad to score first✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Libertad / FT Libertad✗
24%
4.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.25
–
Recent results
Libertad – last 6
LWDWWW
30 Aug
@ Aucas
0–1
L
25 Aug
vs Macara
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Guayaquil City FC
2–2
D
10 Aug
vs Universidad Catolica
2–1
W
1 Aug
vs Orense SC
3–0
W
27 Jul
@ Mushuc Runa SC
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Emelec – last 6
WLWDLL
31 Aug
vs Leones del Norte
2–1
W
24 Aug
@ LDU de Quito
0–2
L
16 Aug
vs Tecnico Universitario
2–1
W
10 Aug
@ Guayaquil City FC
0–0
D
2 Aug
vs Aucas
0–2
L
28 Jul
@ Deportivo Cuenca
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Libertad and Emelec.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Libertad vs Emelec?
On our numbers Libertad have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Emelec 31%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad vs Emelec?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertad vs Emelec?
Our predicted score is Libertad 1–0 Emelec, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Libertad vs Emelec?
Libertad vs Emelec (Liga Pro) kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
