Libertad 24%Draw 21%Independiente del Valle 55%Expected goals 1.05 – 1.76
60%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.67 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
2
Value bet: Independiente del Valle to win @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✓55% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.22
Libertad vs Independiente del Valle: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 14 September the Liga Pro brings Libertad against Independiente del Valle at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne. Kick-off: 00:00 WAT. In the table, Libertad are 7th on 51 points after 36 matches; Independiente del Valle are 1st with 84. There are 33 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Libertad, last 5: WDLWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Deportivo Cuenca, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Independiente del Valle, last 5: LWLDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Flamengo, at home. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Head to head
When they last met (23 May 2026) it ended Independiente del Valle 2–3 Libertad.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Libertad 1.1 xG, Independiente del Valle 1.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Libertad 24%, draw 21%, Independiente del Valle 55%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Independiente del Valle to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (60%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Libertad 1–1 Independiente del Valle. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Libertad24%fair 4.20 · @3.40
Draw21%fair 4.74 · @3.10
Independiente del Valle55%fair 1.82 · @1.95
2.81Expected goals
1.05Libertad xG
1.76Independiente del Valle xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
0–111%
1–210%
0–29%
1–06%
0–06%
From our goals model: Libertad 1.1 – 1.8 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
55%
1.82
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.67
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)✓
70%
1.43
–
Asian handicap
Libertad +1 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✓
What is the prediction for Libertad vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Libertad vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers Libertad have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Independiente del Valle 55%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertad vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is Libertad 1–1 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Libertad vs Independiente del Valle?
Libertad vs Independiente del Valle (Liga Pro) kicks off on Monday 14 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
