Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Barcelona welcome Atletico Madrid to Camp Nou for a Copa Del Rey fixture on Tuesday 3 March (21:00 WAT).
Current form
Atletico Madrid, last 3: WDL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Club Brugge KV, at home. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Barcelona 2.4 xG, Atletico Madrid 1.2 xG – a total near 3.6. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 72% and GG at 67%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Barcelona 64%, draw 19%, Atletico Madrid 18%.
Lower-risk option: Barcelona or draw (82%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (67%) at 1.36.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (72%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Barcelona 2–1 Atletico Madrid. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Barcelona64%fair 1.57 · @1.48
Draw19%fair 5.39 · @5.00
Atletico Madrid18%fair 5.63 · @5.20
3.59Expected goals
2.38Barcelona xG
1.21Atletico Madrid xG
67%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
1–18%
2–08%
3–17%
1–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: Barcelona 2.4 – 1.2 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Attack vs Copa Del Rey average
+7%
-5%
Goals conceded vs average
-5%
+7%
Our expected goals here
2.36
1.23
Our own ratings from every Copa Del Rey result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Barcelona to win✓
64%
1.57
1.48
Double chance
Barcelona or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
67%
1.49
1.36
Draw no bet
Barcelona (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Barcelona -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.06
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.25
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.62
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.55
First team to score
Barcelona to score first✓
64%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Barcelona ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Barcelona / FT Barcelona✓
41%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.57
–
Recent results
Barcelona – last 2
WL
22 Feb
vs Levante
3–0
W
16 Feb
@ Girona
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid – last 3
WDL
24 Feb
vs Club Brugge KV
4–1
W
18 Feb
@ Club Brugge KV
3–3
D
15 Feb
@ Rayo Vallecano
0–3
L
2.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid.
What is the prediction for Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Barcelona have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Atletico Madrid 18%.
How many goals will there be in Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?
Our predicted score is Barcelona 2–1 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid (Copa Del Rey) kicks off on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Camp Nou.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
