Value bet: Athletic Club to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultReal Sociedad to win ✓41% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.78
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Athletic Club travel to face Real Sociedad on Wednesday 4 March in the Copa Del Rey, with Reale Arena the venue – the ball rolls at 21:00 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Real Sociedad 1.5 xG, Athletic Club 1.5 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 51% for three or more goals, 60% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Real Sociedad 41%, draw 25%, Athletic Club 34%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Athletic Club to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Real Sociedad 1–1 Athletic Club. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Real Sociedad41%fair 2.45 · @2.20
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.35
Athletic Club34%fair 2.91 · @3.20
2.94Expected goals
1.49Real Sociedad xG
1.46Athletic Club xG
60%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–18%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: Real Sociedad 1.5 – 1.5 Athletic Club expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Real Sociedad
Athletic Club
Attack vs Copa Del Rey average
+1%
+38%
Goals conceded vs average
-7%
-7%
Our expected goals here
1.50
1.65
Our own ratings from every Copa Del Rey result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Sociedad to win✓
41%
2.45
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Real Sociedad (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.84
–
Asian handicap
Athletic Club +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.34
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
2.05 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.08
First team to score
Real Sociedad to score first✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Sociedad / FT Real Sociedad✗
23%
4.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.78
–
Recent results
Real Sociedad – last 1
D
21 Feb
vs Oviedo
3–3
D
3.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Athletic Club – last 2
WW
20 Feb
vs Elche
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Oviedo
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Sociedad and Athletic Club.
What is the prediction for Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club?
On our numbers Real Sociedad have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Athletic Club 34%.
How many goals will there be in Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club?
Our predicted score is Real Sociedad 1–1 Athletic Club, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club?
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club (Copa Del Rey) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Reale Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
