AZ Alkmaar 65%Draw 20%Telstar 15%Expected goals 2.43 – 1.15
83%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.70 – our chance 63% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAZ Alkmaar to win ✓65% · @1.45
Double chanceAZ Alkmaar or draw ✓85% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.58
AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
AZ Alkmaar welcome Telstar to AFAS Stadion for a KNVB Beker fixture on Wednesday 4 March (20:00 WAT).
Current form
AZ Alkmaar, last 4: LWWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Utrecht, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Telstar, last 3: WLD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over NAC Breda, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AZ Alkmaar 2.4 xG, Telstar 1.2 xG – a total near 3.6. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 64% and GG at 63%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AZ Alkmaar 65%, draw 20%, Telstar 15%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.70 – the bookmaker implies 59%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (83%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Telstar. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AZ Alkmaar65%fair 1.54 · @1.45
Draw20%fair 5.00 · @4.40
Telstar15%fair 6.70 · @6.40
3.59Expected goals
2.43AZ Alkmaar xG
1.15Telstar xG
63%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
2–08%
1–18%
3–18%
1–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: AZ Alkmaar 2.4 – 1.2 Telstar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AZ Alkmaar to win✓
65%
1.54
1.45
Double chance
AZ Alkmaar or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.58
1.70 ▲
Draw no bet
AZ Alkmaar (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
AZ Alkmaar -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.20
First team to score
AZ Alkmaar to score first
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
AZ Alkmaar ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AZ Alkmaar / FT AZ Alkmaar✗
43%
2.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
10.58
–
Recent results
AZ Alkmaar – last 4
LWWL
1 Mar
@ Utrecht
0–2
L
26 Feb
vs FC Noah
4–0
W
22 Feb
vs Sparta Rotterdam
3–1
W
19 Feb
@ FC Noah
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Telstar – last 3
WLD
27 Feb
vs NAC Breda
3–0
W
22 Feb
@ Feyenoord
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs Twente
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AZ Alkmaar and Telstar.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
On our numbers AZ Alkmaar have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Telstar 15%.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
Our predicted score is AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Telstar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar (KNVB Beker) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
