Value bet: Novorizontino to win @ 1.80 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNovorizontino to win ✓63% · @1.80
Double chanceNovorizontino or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.69
Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 23 June the Serie B brings Ponte Preta against Novorizontino at Moisés Lucarelli. Kick-off: 00:00 WAT. In the table, Ponte Preta are 20th, in the drop zone, on 15 points after 37 matches; Novorizontino are 1st (leading the league) with 70. There are 55 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Ponte Preta, last 5: LLDLL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Juventude, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Novorizontino, last 5: DWDDL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Nautico Recife, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Novorizontino, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Ponte Preta.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ponte Preta 0.7 xG, Novorizontino 2.0 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ponte Preta 15%, draw 22%, Novorizontino 63%.
Lower-risk option: Novorizontino or draw (85%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Novorizontino to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.42). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ponte Preta 0–2 Novorizontino. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ponte Preta15%fair 6.83 · @4.70
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.30
Novorizontino63%fair 1.59 · @1.80
2.70Expected goals
0.69Ponte Preta xG
2.02Novorizontino xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–214%
0–114%
1–29%
1–19%
0–39%
0–07%
From our goals model: Ponte Preta 0.7 – 2.0 Novorizontino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Ponte Preta
Novorizontino
Attack vs Serie B average
-43%
+44%
Goals conceded vs average
+66%
-26%
Our expected goals here
0.58
2.45
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novorizontino to win✓
63%
1.59
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Novorizontino or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Novorizontino (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Novorizontino -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.06
First team to score
Novorizontino to score first✓
70%
1.44
–
Half-time result
Novorizontino ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Novorizontino / FT Novorizontino✓
44%
2.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.69
–
Recent results
Ponte Preta – last 6
LLDLLW
14 Jun
@ Juventude
0–3
L
9 Jun
vs Cuiaba
1–2
L
1 Jun
vs Botafogo SP
0–0
D
24 May
@ CRB
2–4
L
18 May
vs Londrina
1–4
L
25 Apr
vs America Mineiro
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Novorizontino – last 6
DWDDLD
14 Jun
vs Nautico Recife
2–2
D
11 Jun
@ Goias
4–0
W
31 May
@ São Bernardo
1–1
D
27 May
@ Chapecoense-sc
2–2
D
20 May
vs Chapecoense-sc
0–2
L
17 May
@ Cuiaba
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ponte Preta and Novorizontino.
What is the prediction for Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino?
On our numbers Ponte Preta have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Novorizontino 63%.
How many goals will there be in Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino?
Our predicted score is Ponte Preta 0–2 Novorizontino, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino?
Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino (Serie B) kicks off on Tuesday 23 June 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Moisés Lucarelli.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
