Novorizontino 56%Draw 26%Vila Nova 18%Expected goals 1.66 – 0.85
82%
Betarazi pick
Novorizontino or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Novorizontino to win @ 1.93 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNovorizontino to win ✓56% · @1.93
Double chanceNovorizontino or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.51
Novorizontino vs Vila Nova: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 26 June the Serie B brings Novorizontino against Vila Nova at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi. Kick-off: 23:00 WAT. In the table, Novorizontino are 1st, leading the league, on 70 points after 37 matches; Vila Nova are 3rd (among the top four) with 66.
Current form
Novorizontino, last 5: WDWDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Ponte Preta, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Vila Nova, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 4–3 win over Nautico Recife, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Vila Nova, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.5 for Novorizontino.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Novorizontino 1.7 xG, Vila Nova 0.9 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Novorizontino 56%, draw 26%, Vila Nova 18%.
Lower-risk option: Novorizontino or draw (82%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Novorizontino to win @1.93 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Novorizontino or draw (82%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Novorizontino 1–0 Vila Nova. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Novorizontino56%fair 1.79 · @1.93
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @3.10
Vila Nova18%fair 5.46 · @4.30
2.51Expected goals
1.66Novorizontino xG
0.85Vila Nova xG
55%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Novorizontino 1.7 – 0.9 Vila Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Novorizontino
Vila Nova
Attack vs Serie B average
+44%
+16%
Goals conceded vs average
-26%
-15%
Our expected goals here
1.69
0.88
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novorizontino to win✓
56%
1.79
1.93 ▲
Double chance
Novorizontino or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Novorizontino (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
Vila Nova +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.06
First team to score
Novorizontino to score first
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Novorizontino / FT Novorizontino✗
35%
2.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.51
–
Recent results
Novorizontino – last 6
WDWDDL
23 Jun
@ Ponte Preta
2–0
W
14 Jun
vs Nautico Recife
2–2
D
11 Jun
@ Goias
4–0
W
31 May
@ São Bernardo
1–1
D
27 May
@ Chapecoense-sc
2–2
D
20 May
vs Chapecoense-sc
0–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Vila Nova – last 6
WLWWWW
20 Jun
vs Nautico Recife
4–3
W
14 Jun
@ Cuiaba
0–1
L
9 Jun
vs Botafogo SP
1–0
W
31 May
@ Londrina
1–0
W
24 May
@ America Mineiro
2–1
W
17 May
vs Avai
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Novorizontino and Vila Nova.
What is the prediction for Novorizontino vs Vila Nova?
Our pick is Novorizontino or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Novorizontino vs Vila Nova?
On our numbers Novorizontino have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Vila Nova 18%.
How many goals will there be in Novorizontino vs Vila Nova?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Novorizontino vs Vila Nova?
Our predicted score is Novorizontino 1–0 Vila Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Novorizontino vs Vila Nova?
Novorizontino vs Vila Nova (Serie B) kicks off on Friday 26 June 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
