Sport Recife 76%Draw 19%Ponte Preta 6%Expected goals 2.39 – 0.59
59%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.73Odds
Picks by market
ResultSport Recife to win ✓76% · @1.12
Double chanceSport Recife or draw ✓94% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.11
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.70
Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sport Recife welcome Ponte Preta to Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho for a Serie B fixture on Friday 11 September (01:30 WAT). In the table, Sport Recife are 9th, upper half, on 55 points after 37 matches; Ponte Preta are 20th (in the drop zone) with 15. There are 40 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Sport Recife, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Ceara, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Ponte Preta, last 5: LLLLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to São Bernardo, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.
Momentum favours Sport Recife, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.2 for Ponte Preta.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sport Recife 2.4 xG, Ponte Preta 0.6 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 62% and GG at 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sport Recife 76%, draw 19%, Ponte Preta 6%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (59%, odds 1.73 – longer than our fair 1.68, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sport Recife 2–0 Ponte Preta. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sport Recife76%fair 1.32 · @1.12
Draw19%fair 5.36 · @8.50
Ponte Preta6%fair 18.07 · @15.00
2.98Expected goals
2.39Sport Recife xG
0.59Ponte Preta xG
53%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–015%
1–012%
3–012%
2–19%
1–17%
4–07%
From our goals model: Sport Recife 2.4 – 0.6 Ponte Preta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sport Recife to win✓
76%
1.32
1.12
Double chance
Sport Recife or draw✓
94%
1.06
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Sport Recife (draw no bet)✓
93%
1.07
–
Asian handicap
Sport Recife -1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.11
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
1.73
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.30
First team to score
Sport Recife to score first✓
76%
1.31
–
Half-time result
Sport Recife ahead at half-time✓
56%
1.78
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sport Recife / FT Sport Recife✓
53%
1.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.70
–
Recent results
Sport Recife – last 6
LLWLWW
5 Sep
@ Ceara
1–2
L
29 Aug
@ Novorizontino
1–2
L
24 Aug
vs America Mineiro
3–0
W
19 Aug
@ Avai
1–2
L
15 Aug
vs Londrina
2–1
W
8 Aug
@ Vila Nova
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Ponte Preta – last 6
LLLLDL
6 Sep
vs São Bernardo
0–2
L
30 Aug
@ America Mineiro
0–2
L
23 Aug
vs Avai
0–2
L
20 Aug
@ Vila Nova
0–6
L
14 Aug
vs Nautico Recife
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Ceara
0–2
L
0.2Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sport Recife and Ponte Preta.
What is the prediction for Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?
On our numbers Sport Recife have a 76% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Ponte Preta 6%.
How many goals will there be in Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?
Our predicted score is Sport Recife 2–0 Ponte Preta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?
Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta (Serie B) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
