Value bet: Fortaleza EC to win @ 2.90 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSport Recife to win ✗39% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 13.20
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Fortaleza EC travel to face Sport Recife on Saturday 17 October in the Serie B, with Ilha do Retiro the venue – the ball rolls at 00:30 WAT. In the table, Sport Recife are 9th, upper half, on 55 points after 37 matches; Fortaleza EC are 5th (upper half) with 62.
Current form
Sport Recife, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Atletico Goianiense, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Fortaleza EC, last 5: DWDDW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with CRB, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (28 Jun 2026) it ended Fortaleza EC 2–1 Sport Recife. The last 4 head-to-heads: Sport Recife 1 win, Fortaleza EC 3, draws 0. Those games averaged 2.5 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sport Recife 1.1 xG, Fortaleza EC 1.1 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sport Recife 39%, draw 23%, Fortaleza EC 38%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Fortaleza EC to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (51%, odds 1.83). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sport Recife 1–1 Fortaleza EC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sport Recife39%fair 2.55 · @2.30
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.10
Fortaleza EC38%fair 2.65 · @2.90
2.24Expected goals
1.13Sport Recife xG
1.11Fortaleza EC xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Sport Recife 1.1 – 1.1 Fortaleza EC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
On our numbers Sport Recife have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Fortaleza EC 38%.
How many goals will there be in Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Our predicted score is Sport Recife 1–1 Fortaleza EC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Ilha do Retiro.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
