Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultATK Mohun Bagan to win56% · @1.48
Double chanceATK Mohun Bagan or draw83% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.84
ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Sunday 12 April: ATK Mohun Bagan v Minerva Punjab in the Indian Super League, played at Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan. In the table, ATK Mohun Bagan are 1st, leading the league, on 12 points after 5 matches; Minerva Punjab are 5th (upper half) with 7.
Current form
ATK Mohun Bagan, last 5: DLWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Jamshedpur, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Minerva Punjab, last 5: WDDWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Mohammedan, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give ATK Mohun Bagan 1.5 xG, Minerva Punjab 0.9 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – ATK Mohun Bagan 56%, draw 26%, Minerva Punjab 17%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: ATK Mohun Bagan 1–0 Minerva Punjab. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
ATK Mohun Bagan56%fair 1.77 · @1.48
Draw26%fair 3.82 · @3.65
Minerva Punjab17%fair 5.73 · @7.00
2.40Expected goals
1.52ATK Mohun Bagan xG
0.88Minerva Punjab xG
51%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–18%
From our goals model: ATK Mohun Bagan 1.5 – 0.9 Minerva Punjab expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ATK Mohun Bagan to win
56%
1.77
1.48
Double chance
ATK Mohun Bagan or draw
83%
1.21
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.97
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
ATK Mohun Bagan (draw no bet)
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Minerva Punjab +1 (Asian handicap)
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.44
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
55%
1.81
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
ATK Mohun Bagan to score first
58%
1.73
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT ATK Mohun Bagan / FT ATK Mohun Bagan
32%
3.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.84
–
Recent results
ATK Mohun Bagan – last 5
DLWWW
4 Apr
@ Jamshedpur
1–1
D
20 Mar
vs Mumbai City
0–1
L
6 Mar
vs Odisha
5–1
W
23 Feb
vs Chennaiyin
2–0
W
14 Feb
vs Kerala Blasters
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Minerva Punjab – last 5
WDDWL
3 Apr
vs Mohammedan
2–1
W
16 Mar
vs Goa
1–1
D
9 Mar
vs NorthEast United
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Bengaluru
2–0
W
21 Feb
@ Jamshedpur
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ATK Mohun Bagan and Minerva Punjab.
What is the prediction for ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab?
On our numbers ATK Mohun Bagan have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Minerva Punjab 17%.
How many goals will there be in ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab?
Our predicted score is ATK Mohun Bagan 1–0 Minerva Punjab, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab?
ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab (Indian Super League) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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