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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Toluca v San Diego: numbers & prediction

CONCACAF Champions League · North & Central America · Estadio Nemesio Diez

Toluca

DLWWW
4–0
FT

San Diego

DWWWW
Toluca 71%Draw 15%San Diego 13% Expected goals 2.66 – 1.13
71%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.40 · bookmaker 1.35 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.35Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultToluca to win ✓71% · @1.19
Double chanceToluca or draw ✓87% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.80
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓71% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.06

Toluca vs San Diego: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

04:00 WAT, Thursday 19 March: Toluca v San Diego in the CONCACAF Champions League, played at Estadio Nemesio Diez.

Current form

Toluca, last 5: DLWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Atlas, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.

San Diego, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with FC Dallas, away. 2.8 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Head to head

When they last met (12 Mar 2026) it ended San Diego 3–2 Toluca.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Toluca 2.7 xG, San Diego 1.1 xG – a total near 3.8. That is an open game on paper: 71% for three or more goals, 61% for GG.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Toluca 71%, draw 15%, San Diego 13%.
  • GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.80.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 61%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (71%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Toluca 2–1 San Diego. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Toluca71%fair 1.40 · @1.19
Draw15%fair 6.50 · @6.75
San Diego13%fair 7.46 · @12.00
3.79Expected goals
2.66Toluca xG
1.13San Diego xG
61%Both score
71%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–19%
2–08%
3–18%
3–07%
1–17%
1–06%

From our goals model: Toluca 2.7 – 1.1 San Diego expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultToluca to win ✓71%1.401.19
Double chanceToluca or draw ✓87%1.151.03
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗61%1.651.80 ▲
Draw no betToluca (draw no bet) ✓84%1.19–
Asian handicapToluca -1 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.61–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓87%1.151.10
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓71%1.401.35
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✓52%1.941.85
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓68%1.481.38
First team to scoreToluca to score first ✓69%1.46–
Half-time resultToluca ahead at half-time ✓53%1.90–
Half-time / full-timeHT Toluca / FT Toluca ✓47%2.11–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%11.06–

Recent results

Toluca – last 6

DLWWWW
15 Marvs Atlas1–1D
12 Mar@ San Diego2–3L
9 Marvs FC Juarez3–1W
4 Mar@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas3–2W
1 Marvs Guadalajara Chivas2–0W
22 Feb@ Necaxa3–0W
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

San Diego – last 5

DWWWW
15 Mar@ FC Dallas3–3D
12 Marvs Toluca3–2W
8 Mar@ Sporting Kansas City1–0W
2 Marvs St. Louis City2–0W
22 Febvs CF Montreal5–0W
2.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5

Head to head

12 Mar 2026San Diego v Toluca3–2
Toluca vs San Diego head-to-head page →

More CONCACAF Champions League predictions

FT Inter Miami1 Nashville SC1 149%1.67X22%4.10228%4.40 1.4–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 67%@1.55 ✓
FT Club America1 Philadelphia Union1 158%1.45X21%4.30221%7.00 1.8–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.25 ✓
FT Seattle Sounders2 Vancouver Whitecaps1 132%3.15X26%3.20242%2.28 1.1–1.4xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.33 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Toluca vs San Diego?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.

Who will win Toluca vs San Diego?

On our numbers Toluca have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 15% and San Diego 13%.

How many goals will there be in Toluca vs San Diego?

We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Toluca vs San Diego?

Our predicted score is Toluca 2–1 San Diego, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.

When is Toluca vs San Diego?

Toluca vs San Diego (CONCACAF Champions League) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.