San Diego 28%Draw 34%Toluca 38%Expected goals 1.38 – 1.79
79%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.45 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✗38% · @2.64
Double chanceToluca or draw ✗72% · @1.50
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.78
San Diego vs Toluca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 12 March the CONCACAF Champions League brings San Diego against Toluca at Snapdragon Stadium. Kick-off: 04:30 WAT.
Current form
San Diego, last 3: WWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Sporting Kansas City, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.7 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Toluca, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over FC Juarez, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.4 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give San Diego 1.4 xG, Toluca 1.8 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – San Diego 28%, draw 34%, Toluca 38%.
Lower-risk option: Toluca or draw (72%) at 1.50.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.45 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: San Diego 1–1 Toluca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
San Diego28%fair 3.52 · @2.50
Draw34%fair 2.98 · @3.45
Toluca38%fair 2.63 · @2.64
3.18Expected goals
1.38San Diego xG
1.79Toluca xG
64%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–29%
0–17%
2–17%
0–27%
2–26%
From our goals model: San Diego 1.4 – 1.8 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✗
38%
2.63
2.64
Double chance
Toluca or draw✗
72%
1.40
1.50 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.57
1.60
Draw no bet
Toluca (draw no bet)✗
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
San Diego +1 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
1.15
First team to score
Toluca to score first
54%
1.85
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
38%
2.62
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
29%
3.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.78
–
Recent results
San Diego – last 3
WWW
8 Mar
@ Sporting Kansas City
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs St. Louis City
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs CF Montreal
5–0
W
2.7Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Toluca – last 5
WWWWW
9 Mar
vs FC Juarez
3–1
W
4 Mar
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3–2
W
1 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ Necaxa
3–0
W
14 Feb
vs Club Tijuana
1–0
W
2.4Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Diego and Toluca.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win San Diego vs Toluca?
On our numbers San Diego have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 34% and Toluca 38%.
How many goals will there be in San Diego vs Toluca?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Diego vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is San Diego 1–1 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is San Diego vs Toluca?
San Diego vs Toluca (CONCACAF Champions League) kicks off on Thursday 12 March 2026 at 04:30 (West Africa Time) at Snapdragon Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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