Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.51 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.51Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 54% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLiverpool Montevideo to win ✗46% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.34
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.25
Cerro vs Liverpool Montevideo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
22:45 WAT, Friday 20 February: Cerro v Liverpool Montevideo in the Primera División Apertura, played at Estadio Luis Troccoli. In the table, Cerro are 9th, lower half, on 18 points after 13 matches; Liverpool Montevideo are 1st (leading the league) with 30. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cerro 0.9 xG, Liverpool Montevideo 1.4 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cerro 27%, draw 27%, Liverpool Montevideo 46%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (64%, odds 1.51). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cerro 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cerro27%fair 3.67 · @3.10
Draw27%fair 3.75 · @3.10
Liverpool Montevideo46%fair 2.17 · @2.20
2.32Expected goals
0.91Cerro xG
1.41Liverpool Montevideo xG
54%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–010%
0–210%
1–09%
1–29%
From our goals model: Cerro 0.9 – 1.4 Liverpool Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-9%
+15%
Goals conceded vs average
+20%
-31%
Our expected goals here
0.81
1.48
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win✗
46%
2.17
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.36
1.34
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Liverpool Montevideo (draw no bet)
63%
1.59
–
Asian handicap
Cerro +1 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.51
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.46
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.15
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.09
1.03
First team to score
Liverpool Montevideo to score first
55%
1.82
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo✗
29%
3.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.25
–
Recent results
Cerro – last 1
L
16 Feb
@ Albion FC
0–3
L
0.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Liverpool Montevideo – last 2
LL
18 Feb
vs Independiente Medellin
1–2
L
14 Feb
vs Defensor Sporting
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerro and Liverpool Montevideo.
What is the prediction for Cerro vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.51.
Who will win Cerro vs Liverpool Montevideo?
On our numbers Cerro have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Liverpool Montevideo 46%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro vs Liverpool Montevideo?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Cerro 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Cerro vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Cerro vs Liverpool Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Friday 20 February 2026 at 22:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Troccoli.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
