Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 53% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPenarol to win ✓55% · @1.55
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓82% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.05
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.30
Penarol vs Deportivo Maldonado: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 23 February the Primera División Apertura brings Penarol against Deportivo Maldonado at Estadio Campeón del Siglo. Kick-off: 00:30 WAT. In the table, Penarol are 5th, upper half, on 22 points after 13 matches; Deportivo Maldonado are 4th (among the top four) with 22. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Penarol 1.7 xG, Deportivo Maldonado 1.0 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Penarol 55%, draw 27%, Deportivo Maldonado 18%.
Lower-risk option: Penarol or draw (82%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.32). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penarol 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Penarol55%fair 1.81 · @1.55
Draw27%fair 3.77 · @3.90
Deportivo Maldonado18%fair 5.46 · @5.25
2.72Expected goals
1.70Penarol xG
1.02Deportivo Maldonado xG
53%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–011%
2–110%
2–010%
0–17%
0–07%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.7 – 1.0 Deportivo Maldonado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Penarol
Deportivo Maldonado
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+24%
+14%
Goals conceded vs average
-29%
-23%
Our expected goals here
1.22
0.87
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✓
55%
1.81
1.55
Double chance
Penarol or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Penarol (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
Deportivo Maldonado +1 (Asian handicap)
62%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.32
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.72
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.27
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.09
First team to score
Penarol to score first✗
58%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
33%
3.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.30
–
Recent results
Penarol – last 1
L
16 Feb
@ Central Espanol
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Deportivo Maldonado
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penarol and Deportivo Maldonado.
What is the prediction for Penarol vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.32.
Who will win Penarol vs Deportivo Maldonado?
On our numbers Penarol have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Deportivo Maldonado 18%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Deportivo Maldonado?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Penarol vs Deportivo Maldonado (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Monday 23 February 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
