Value bet: South Melbourne to win @ 2.25 – our chance 49% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSouth Melbourne to win ✓49% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.33
Green Gully vs South Melbourne: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Green Gully welcome South Melbourne to Green Gully Reserve for a Victoria NPL fixture on Friday 13 March (09:30 WAT).
Current form
Green Gully, last 4: DLLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Hume City, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
South Melbourne, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Bentleigh Greens, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.
Momentum favours South Melbourne, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.3 for Green Gully.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Green Gully 1.1 xG, South Melbourne 1.7 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Green Gully 27%, draw 24%, South Melbourne 49%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: South Melbourne to win @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 49%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Green Gully 1–1 South Melbourne. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Green Gully27%fair 3.73 · @2.75
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.45
South Melbourne49%fair 2.03 · @2.25
2.77Expected goals
1.08Green Gully xG
1.70South Melbourne xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
0–111%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–06%
From our goals model: Green Gully 1.1 – 1.7 South Melbourne expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
South Melbourne to win✓
49%
2.03
2.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.63
1.55
Draw no bet
South Melbourne (draw no bet)✓
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
Green Gully +1 (Asian handicap)
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.87
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
First team to score
South Melbourne to score first✓
57%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT South Melbourne / FT South Melbourne✓
32%
3.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.33
–
Recent results
Green Gully – last 4
DLLL
6 Mar
vs Hume City
1–1
D
28 Feb
@ Avondale
0–5
L
20 Feb
vs Sunshine Georgies
0–2
L
13 Feb
@ Heidelberg United
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
South Melbourne – last 6
WWWWDL
7 Mar
vs Bentleigh Greens
1–0
W
4 Mar
vs Solomon Kings
5–0
W
28 Feb
@ Altona Magic
2–1
W
27 Feb
vs South Island United
4–1
W
21 Feb
vs Auckland FC 2
1–1
D
19 Feb
vs Hume City
1–2
L
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Green Gully and South Melbourne.
What is the prediction for Green Gully vs South Melbourne?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Green Gully vs South Melbourne?
On our numbers Green Gully have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 24% and South Melbourne 49%.
How many goals will there be in Green Gully vs South Melbourne?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Green Gully vs South Melbourne?
Our predicted score is Green Gully 1–1 South Melbourne, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Green Gully vs South Melbourne?
Green Gully vs South Melbourne (Victoria NPL) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 09:30 (West Africa Time) at Green Gully Reserve.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Victoria NPL · Australia · Green Gully Reserve
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