South Melbourne 55%Draw 22%Melbourne City II 23%Expected goals 1.95 – 1.06
78%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: South Melbourne to win @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSouth Melbourne to win ✗55% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.06
South Melbourne vs Melbourne City II: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
South Melbourne welcome Melbourne City II for a Victoria NPL fixture on Friday 1 May (10:30 WAT).
Current form
South Melbourne, last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over St. Albans Saints, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. 2.8 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Melbourne City II, last 5: LLDDD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Hume City, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours South Melbourne, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for Melbourne City II.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give South Melbourne 1.9 xG, Melbourne City II 1.1 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 56% for three or more goals, 59% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – South Melbourne 55%, draw 22%, Melbourne City II 23%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: South Melbourne to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: South Melbourne 1–1 Melbourne City II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
South Melbourne55%fair 1.81 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.50
Melbourne City II23%fair 4.42 · @3.25
3.00Expected goals
1.95South Melbourne xG
1.06Melbourne City II xG
59%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–010%
2–09%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: South Melbourne 1.9 – 1.1 Melbourne City II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
South Melbourne to win✗
55%
1.81
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.57
Draw no bet
South Melbourne (draw no bet)✗
71%
1.41
–
Asian handicap
Melbourne City II +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
First team to score
South Melbourne to score first
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
South Melbourne ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT South Melbourne / FT South Melbourne✗
37%
2.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.06
–
Recent results
South Melbourne – last 6
WWLLWL
24 Apr
@ St. Albans Saints
4–0
W
21 Apr
vs Tahiti United
8–1
W
19 Apr
vs Oakleigh Cannons
0–3
L
18 Apr
vs Hekari United
1–2
L
15 Apr
vs Bula
2–0
W
12 Apr
@ Auckland FC 2
2–3
L
2.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Melbourne City II – last 6
LLDDDW
26 Apr
vs Hume City
0–1
L
18 Apr
@ Avondale
1–3
L
12 Apr
vs Sunshine Georgies
1–1
D
27 Mar
@ Heidelberg United
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Altona Magic
1–1
D
14 Mar
vs St. Albans Saints
5–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between South Melbourne and Melbourne City II.
What is the prediction for South Melbourne vs Melbourne City II?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win South Melbourne vs Melbourne City II?
On our numbers South Melbourne have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Melbourne City II 23%.
How many goals will there be in South Melbourne vs Melbourne City II?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for South Melbourne vs Melbourne City II?
Our predicted score is South Melbourne 1–1 Melbourne City II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is South Melbourne vs Melbourne City II?
South Melbourne vs Melbourne City II (Victoria NPL) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Victoria NPL · Australia
Green Gully0
Oakleigh Cannons5
Bentleigh Greens2
St. Albans Saints4