Value bet: Lions to win @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLions to win ✓51% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗68% · @1.33
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗69% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.80
Lions vs Moreton City Excelsior: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 9 May the Queensland NPL brings Lions against Moreton City Excelsior. Kick-off: 10:30 WAT.
Current form
Lions, last 5: LWWDW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Peninsula Power, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.8 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Moreton City Excelsior, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 6–0 win over Brisbane Roar II, at home. The attack is flying at 3.8 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Moreton City Excelsior, collecting 3.0 points per game to 2.2 for Lions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lions 2.3 xG, Moreton City Excelsior 1.4 xG – a total near 3.6. That is an open game on paper: 69% for three or more goals, 68% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lions 51%, draw 21%, Moreton City Excelsior 28%.
GG/NG: GG (68%) at 1.33.
Price worth noting: Lions to win @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (69%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lions 2–1 Moreton City Excelsior. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lions51%fair 1.96 · @2.10
Draw21%fair 4.86 · @3.80
Moreton City Excelsior28%fair 3.52 · @2.80
3.64Expected goals
2.26Lions xG
1.38Moreton City Excelsior xG
68%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
2–07%
2–26%
1–06%
From our goals model: Lions 2.3 – 1.4 Moreton City Excelsior expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lions to win✓
51%
1.96
2.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
68%
1.47
1.33
Draw no bet
Lions (draw no bet)✓
64%
1.56
–
Asian handicap
Moreton City Excelsior +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
1.77
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.33
First team to score
Lions to score first✓
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Lions ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lions / FT Lions✓
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.80
–
Recent results
Lions – last 6
LWWDWW
25 Apr
@ Peninsula Power
2–3
L
19 Apr
vs Gold Coast United
1–0
W
10 Apr
@ WDSC Wolves
5–0
W
28 Mar
vs Brisbane City
2–2
D
22 Mar
vs Magic United
4–0
W
14 Mar
@ Eastern Suburbs
3–1
W
2.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Moreton City Excelsior – last 6
WWWWWW
25 Apr
vs Brisbane Roar II
6–0
W
18 Apr
@ Peninsula Power
4–1
W
11 Apr
vs Gold Coast United
2–1
W
7 Apr
@ Magic United
5–0
W
28 Mar
vs Eastern Suburbs
3–0
W
21 Mar
vs Rochedale Rovers
3–1
W
3.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lions and Moreton City Excelsior.
What is the prediction for Lions vs Moreton City Excelsior?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Lions vs Moreton City Excelsior?
On our numbers Lions have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Moreton City Excelsior 28%.
How many goals will there be in Lions vs Moreton City Excelsior?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lions vs Moreton City Excelsior?
Our predicted score is Lions 2–1 Moreton City Excelsior, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Lions vs Moreton City Excelsior?
Lions vs Moreton City Excelsior (Queensland NPL) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Queensland NPL · Australia
