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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Gold Coast Knights v Moreton City Excelsior: numbers & prediction

Queensland NPL · Australia

Gold Coast Knights

LWWWL
2–1
FT

Moreton City Excelsior

WDWDL
Gold Coast Knights 40%Draw 22%Moreton City Excelsior 38% Expected goals 1.89 – 1.70
70%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.42 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.30Odds

Picks by market

ResultGold Coast Knights to win ✓40% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓70% · @1.28
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 11.92

Gold Coast Knights vs Moreton City Excelsior: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Gold Coast Knights welcome Moreton City Excelsior for a Queensland NPL fixture on Saturday 4 July (07:15 WAT).

Current form

Gold Coast Knights, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Rochedale Rovers, away. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately.

Moreton City Excelsior, last 5: WDWDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Gold Coast United, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.

Head to head

When they last met (20 Feb 2026) it ended Moreton City Excelsior 4–1 Gold Coast Knights.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Gold Coast Knights 1.9 xG, Moreton City Excelsior 1.7 xG – a total near 3.6. That is an open game on paper: 70% for three or more goals, 70% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Gold Coast Knights 40%, draw 22%, Moreton City Excelsior 38%.
  • GG/NG: GG (70%) at 1.28.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (70%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gold Coast Knights 2–1 Moreton City Excelsior. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Gold Coast Knights40%fair 2.49 · @2.50
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @4.00
Moreton City Excelsior38%fair 2.66 · @2.25
3.59Expected goals
1.89Gold Coast Knights xG
1.70Moreton City Excelsior xG
70%Both score
70%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–19%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
3–15%
1–05%

From our goals model: Gold Coast Knights 1.9 – 1.7 Moreton City Excelsior expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultGold Coast Knights to win ✓40%2.492.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78%1.281.17
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓70%1.431.28
Draw no betGold Coast Knights (draw no bet) ✓52%1.94–
Asian handicapMoreton City Excelsior +1 (Asian handicap)71%1.41–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓87%1.15–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70%1.421.30
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✗50%1.991.77
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓68%1.471.42
First team to scoreGold Coast Knights to score first51%1.95–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓36%2.81–
Half-time / full-timeHT Gold Coast Knights / FT Gold Coast Knights ✗26%3.81–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8%11.92–

Recent results

Gold Coast Knights – last 6

LWWWLW
26 Jun@ Rochedale Rovers1–4L
23 Junvs Eastern Suburbs4–1W
19 Junvs Magic United2–1W
5 Junvs Olympic5–2W
15 May@ Peninsula Power0–2L
10 Mayvs Brisbane Roar II3–2W
2.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Moreton City Excelsior – last 6

WDWDLW
28 Jun@ Gold Coast United1–0W
20 Junvs WDSC Wolves2–2D
16 Jun@ Rochedale Rovers5–2W
5 Jun@ Eastern Suburbs0–0D
22 Mayvs Brisbane City2–5L
16 Mayvs Olympic4–3W
2.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

20 Feb 2026Moreton City Excelsior v Gold Coast Knights4–1
Gold Coast Knights vs Moreton City Excelsior head-to-head page →

More Queensland NPL predictions

FT Eastern Suburbs1 Peninsula Power3 129%3.00X23%3.80248%2.00 1.4–1.9xG GGBoth teams to score 67%@1.35 ✓
FT Lions2 Olympic0 171%1.40X17%4.80212%5.80 2.9–1.1xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Gold Coast Knights vs Moreton City Excelsior?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win Gold Coast Knights vs Moreton City Excelsior?

On our numbers Gold Coast Knights have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Moreton City Excelsior 38%.

How many goals will there be in Gold Coast Knights vs Moreton City Excelsior?

We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Gold Coast Knights vs Moreton City Excelsior?

Our predicted score is Gold Coast Knights 2–1 Moreton City Excelsior, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.

When is Gold Coast Knights vs Moreton City Excelsior?

Gold Coast Knights vs Moreton City Excelsior (Queensland NPL) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 07:15 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.