Moreton City Excelsior v Lions Prediction & Expected Goals (14 Aug) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultLions to win ✓44% · @2.30

Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.18

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗71% · @1.30

GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗70% · @1.35

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.16

Moreton City Excelsior vs Lions: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

10:30 WAT, Friday 14 August: Moreton City Excelsior v Lions in the Queensland NPL.

Current form

Moreton City Excelsior, last 5: WLDWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Olympic, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Lions, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Melbourne City, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Lions, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.7 for Moreton City Excelsior.

Head to head

When they last met (9 May 2026) it ended Lions 2–0 Moreton City Excelsior.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Moreton City Excelsior 1.8 xG, Lions 1.9 xG – a total near 3.7. That is an open game on paper: 70% for three or more goals, 71% for GG.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Moreton City Excelsior 36%, draw 19%, Lions 44%.
GG/NG: GG (71%) at 1.30.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (71%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Moreton City Excelsior 1–1 Lions. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Moreton City Excelsior36%fair 2.74 · @2.45

Draw19%fair 5.15 · @3.85

Lions44%fair 2.27 · @2.30

3.69Expected goals

1.75Moreton City Excelsior xG

1.94Lions xG

71%Both score

70%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–18%

1–28%

2–17%

2–27%

1–35%

0–15%

From our goals model: Moreton City Excelsior 1.8 – 1.9 Lions expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Lions to win ✓	44%	2.27	2.30
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	81%	1.24	1.18
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	71%	1.41	1.30
Draw no bet	Lions (draw no bet) ✓	55%	1.83	–
Asian handicap	Moreton City Excelsior +1 (Asian handicap) ✗	71%	1.42	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	88%	1.13	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	70%	1.43	1.35
Over/under 3.5 goals	Over 3.5 goals ✗	50%	1.99	1.85
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	69%	1.46	1.36
First team to score	Lions to score first ✓	51%	1.95	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	35%	2.86	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Lions / FT Lions ✗	26%	3.79	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	8%	12.16	–

Moreton City Excelsior – last 6

WLDWLW

8 Aug	@ Olympic	2–1	W
2 Aug	@ Brisbane Roar II	0–2	L
18 Jul	vs Peninsula Power	2–2	D
11 Jul	vs Magic United	4–3	W
4 Jul	@ Gold Coast Knights	1–2	L
28 Jun	@ Gold Coast United	1–0	W

1.7Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Lions – last 6

WWWDWW

11 Aug	vs Melbourne City	2–0	W
7 Aug	vs Brisbane Roar II	4–2	W
1 Aug	vs Peninsula Power	1–0	W
21 Jul	vs Perth Glory	0–0	D
18 Jul	@ Gold Coast United	1–0	W
12 Jul	vs Eastern Suburbs	1–0	W

1.5Scored / game

0.3Conceded / game

17%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Moreton City Excelsior vs Lions?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win Moreton City Excelsior vs Lions?

On our numbers Moreton City Excelsior have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Lions 44%.

How many goals will there be in Moreton City Excelsior vs Lions?

We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 71% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Moreton City Excelsior vs Lions?

Our predicted score is Moreton City Excelsior 1–1 Lions, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.

When is Moreton City Excelsior vs Lions?

Moreton City Excelsior vs Lions (Queensland NPL) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Moreton City Excelsior v Lions: numbers & prediction