Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.15 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultES Tunis to win ✓66% · @1.20
Double chanceES Tunis or draw ✓88% · @1.01
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗72% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓16% · fair 6.13
ES Tunis vs AS Marsa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 7 March the Ligue 1 brings ES Tunis against AS Marsa at Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi. Kick-off: 13:00 WAT. In the table, ES Tunis are 2nd, among the top four, on 16 points after 7 matches; AS Marsa are 11th (lower half) with 6.
Current form
ES Tunis, last 4: WDWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Olympique Béja, away. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give ES Tunis 1.6 xG, AS Marsa 0.7 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – ES Tunis 66%, draw 22%, AS Marsa 12%.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (72%, odds 1.45 – longer than our fair 1.39, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: ES Tunis 1–0 AS Marsa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
ES Tunis66%fair 1.52 · @1.20
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @5.20
AS Marsa12%fair 8.28 · @13.00
2.31Expected goals
1.64ES Tunis xG
0.67AS Marsa xG
50%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: ES Tunis 1.6 – 0.7 AS Marsa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ES Tunis to win✓
66%
1.52
1.20
Double chance
ES Tunis or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.01
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
1.55
Draw no bet
ES Tunis (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.18
–
Asian handicap
ES Tunis -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
2.15 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
ES Tunis to score first✓
64%
1.56
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT ES Tunis / FT ES Tunis✓
38%
2.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
16%
6.13
–
Recent results
ES Tunis – last 4
WDWW
1 Mar
@ Olympique Béja
3–0
W
25 Feb
@ ES Metlaoui
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Stade Tunisien
1–0
W
17 Feb
@ AS Soliman
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
AS Marsa – last 1
L
28 Feb
vs Stade Tunisien
0–4
L
0.0Scored / game
4.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ES Tunis and AS Marsa.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win ES Tunis vs AS Marsa?
On our numbers ES Tunis have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and AS Marsa 12%.
How many goals will there be in ES Tunis vs AS Marsa?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ES Tunis vs AS Marsa?
Our predicted score is ES Tunis 1–0 AS Marsa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is ES Tunis vs AS Marsa?
ES Tunis vs AS Marsa (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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